H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB publishes its nine-month report for the period 1 December 2025 to 31 August 2026 on Thursday, September 24, at 08:00 CEST (06:00 UTC), according to the company’s financial calendar. The release covers the June-to-August third quarter, the first full quarter in which the Swedish group has traded under the US Section 301 forced-labor tariffs and the first in which the tighter inventory discipline that dented second-quarter sales has had a chance to show whether it was a one-off or a habit. Analysts polled by Modular Finance want SEK 57.1 billion of sales and SEK 5.1 billion of operating profit; the report also has to answer a question the company raised itself in June, when a one-line note said it had started a “structured process” around US tariff law.
In short
- Date and time: H&M’s Q3 2026 (June–August) report lands Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 08:00 CEST, with the analyst call at 09:00 CEST, per the company’s financial calendar.
- The bar: Modular Finance consensus from 27 contributors calls for net sales of SEK 57,120 million (about USD 5.8 billion at 9.84 kronor per dollar), local-currency growth of 0.7%, a 53.4% gross margin and operating profit of SEK 5,095 million (about USD 518 million), a margin of 8.9%.
- The comparison: Q3 2025 delivered SEK 57,017 million of sales, a 52.9% gross margin and operating profit of SEK 4,914 million, up 40% at the time; the consensus therefore prices a modest profit gain on flat sales.
- The tariff line: the June report disclosed that H&M “has initiated a structured process” under US tariff laws; with CBP paying IEEPA refunds and apparel peers already booking them, the size and timing of any H&M claim is the swing factor nobody has modelled.
- The Q2 hangover: second-quarter sales of SEK 54,828 million missed the Reuters consensus of SEK 55.27 billion and operating profit of SEK 5,913 million missed SEK 6.38 billion, with management blaming inventory kept too tight to “fully meet demand”; shares fell 2% on the day.
What H&M reports on September 24 and why it matters
The nine-month report is H&M’s third scheduled update of its financial year, which runs from December to November. The company confirmed the September 24 date on its financial calendar alongside the full-year report on 28 January 2027 and the first-quarter report on 24 March 2027. As in prior years the release goes out at 08:00 CEST, before the Stockholm open, and CEO Daniel Ervér and CFO Adam Karlsson host a call at 09:00 CEST.
Three things make this quarter heavier than the calendar suggests. First, it is the first three-month period in which the Section 301 forced-labor duties, which cover 60 economies and roughly 99.4% of US imports, applied throughout; the flat 10% rate on covered apparel has not been softened by the textile quotas USTR signalled for September. Second, the quarter carries the comparison against the SEK 4,914 million of operating profit H&M booked a year earlier, itself a 40% jump that management attributed to a better assortment, a stronger gross margin and cost control. Third, the June report guided that the “overall effect of external factors” on Q3 goods would be flat, meaning the margin story now depends on H&M’s own actions rather than on cheaper cotton, freight or currency.
For shopappy readers the report is also a live test of a question running through every apparel importer’s numbers this autumn: how much of the tariff money paid in 2025 comes back, and where it lands in the income statement. H&M has said less about that than any comparable US-listed peer, which is exactly why the disclosure on Thursday will be read closely.
What the consensus wants: the numbers that set the bar
Modular Finance published a consensus compiled from 27 analysts, all of whom updated or confirmed their estimates ahead of the report. The mean expectation is net sales of SEK 57,120 million, growth of 0.72% in local currencies, gross profit of SEK 30,476 million for a 53.37% gross margin, and operating profit of SEK 5,095 million for an 8.91% operating margin. In dollar terms, at the roughly 9.84 kronor per dollar seen on September 18–20, that is about USD 5.8 billion of revenue and USD 518 million of operating profit.
The bar is deliberately modest. Reported sales would be almost exactly flat on the SEK 57,017 million of Q3 2025, which is what a small local-currency gain and a continuing krona headwind would produce. The gross margin would improve by about half a point on the 52.9% of a year earlier, and operating profit would rise by roughly 3.7%. After two quarters in which H&M beat on margin and missed on sales, the market is asking for both to hold rather than for either to accelerate.
| Metric (SEK million unless stated) | Q3 2025 actual | Q2 2026 actual | Q3 2026 consensus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 57,017 | 54,828 | 57,120 |
| Sales growth, local currencies | +2% | roughly flat | +0.7% |
| Gross profit | 30,143 | 31,045 | 30,476 |
| Gross margin | 52.9% | 56.6% | 53.4% |
| Operating profit (reported) | 4,914 | 5,913 | 5,095 |
| Operating margin | 8.6% | 10.8% | 8.9% |
| Operating profit, USD equivalent | about USD 499m | about USD 601m | about USD 518m |
Sources: H&M nine-month report 2025, H&M six-month report 2026, Modular Finance consensus. USD conversions at 9.84 SEK per USD; Q2 is seasonally H&M’s strongest margin quarter, so the sequential drop in the consensus is normal.
Two smaller lines are worth writing down before Thursday. Profit after tax in Q3 2025 was SEK 3,212 million, or SEK 2.01 per share, and operating cash flow was SEK 9,985 million; the consensus release does not cover those, so any reference to “beat” or “miss” on Thursday will be about sales and operating profit. Stock-in-trade ended August 2025 at SEK 37,938 million, and management has since taken it down another 10% in kronor at the May close, which is where the sales problem starts.
Why the Q2 miss set the tone for this report
H&M’s second quarter, published on June 25, was a margin beat wrapped in a sales miss. Net sales of SEK 54,828 million fell 3.3% in kronor and were fairly flat in local currencies, against a Reuters-compiled consensus of SEK 55.27 billion. Reported operating profit of SEK 5,913 million was flat year on year and short of the SEK 6.38 billion analysts expected; shares dropped about 2% in early trading, according to Reuters.
The company’s own explanation was unusually direct. “Sales in the quarter were somewhat lower than planned, while profitability and the stock-in-trade situation developed well,” Ervér wrote, adding that “the tighter inventory management has, however, in some cases affected our ability to fully meet demand.” Stock-in-trade fell 10% to SEK 34,942 million (about USD 3.55 billion), or 2% on a currency-adjusted basis, and stood at 15.8% of rolling twelve-month sales against 16.6% a year earlier.
That is the trade-off Thursday has to resolve. Leaner stock lifted the Q2 gross margin to 56.6% from 55.4% and, excluding restructuring, took operating profit up 11% to SEK 6,592 million with a 12.0% margin. If Q3 sales come in at or above the SEK 57.1 billion consensus, the June wobble reads as a calibration error. If they miss again while the margin holds, investors will conclude that H&M is buying profitability with market share, and the 0.7% growth expectation will look generous.
The June guide and the September comparison
H&M guided that June 2026 sales in local currencies would be “on par with the same month the previous year”. The company traditionally gives one month of the next quarter, so Thursday’s report should include a read on September 2026. That number has an awkward comparison: a year ago H&M said September 2025 sales were expected on par with 2024, but “should be seen in the light of high comparative figures from last year.” Two flat Septembers in a row would confirm that autumn demand, not inventory, is the ceiling.
The tariff line: what Note 5 says and what it could be worth
Buried at the end of the six-month report, under events after the closing date, is a sentence that has drawn more attention from trade lawyers than from equity analysts: “The company has initiated a structured process to align with the steps set out in the applicable laws and regulatory frameworks concerning tariffs in the U.S.” H&M did not quantify it and has not expanded on it since.
The context makes the meaning reasonably clear. Following the US Supreme Court decision that voided the IEEPA-based tariffs, US Customs and Border Protection has been refunding those duties through its CAPE system, and importers of record with liquidated or unliquidated 2025 entries have been filing claims. Apparel companies with large US import books have already started to book the money: PVH guided to roughly USD 100 million of IEEPA tariff refunds in its second-quarter fiscal 2026 outlook, worth about 470 basis points of operating margin, and Dillard’s disclosed a USD 37.2 million refund that lifted its quarterly profit by a third.
H&M is a different animal. It imports into the US as the importer of record for its own stores and online business, but it does not break out US sales, US cost of goods or US duty paid; the US sits inside a “North and South America” segment that produced SEK 11,530 million of Q2 sales. Any refund would show up as a reduction in cost of goods sold, and therefore as gross margin, in whichever quarter the claim is accepted. Whether that is Q3, Q4 or 2027 depends on the entry dates and on the CAPE Phase 3 timetable that CBP set for October 6, which covers finally liquidated entries and applies only to plaintiffs with a court-ordered reliquidation.
Three ways the refund could appear on Thursday
The first and least likely is a quantified refund in the Q3 gross margin, which would require entries liquidated and paid within the June-to-August window. The second is a quantified receivable or contingent asset in the notes, with the cash to follow. The third, and the one investors should probably price, is another qualitative sentence: the process continues, the amount is not yet determinable. Only the first would move the consensus operating profit, and analysts have not built it in.
There is a tariff cost side too. The Q3 2025 report warned that the fourth quarter of 2025 would see external factors “less positive than the effect on the third quarter’s gross margin, as tariff costs are expected to have an increased impact.” Since then the IEEPA duties have gone and been replaced by a Section 122 surcharge and then the Section 301 forced-labor tariffs, which apply a flat 10% to most apparel with no quota relief because USTR has not established the textile tariff-rate quotas it had signalled for September 1. H&M sources heavily from Bangladesh, Cambodia and China, all covered economies, so the cost line has not gone away; it has simply changed its legal name.
Gross margin: why “flat external factors” is a warning, not a comfort
H&M’s gross margin has been the success story of the Ervér era. It rose from 51.1% to 52.9% in Q3 2025, from 55.4% to 56.6% in Q2 2026, and the rolling twelve-month figure stood at 54.1% at the end of May against 52.6% a year earlier. Management credited “improvement work in the supply chain” for most of the gain, with external factors, chiefly purchasing costs and currency, a “somewhat positive” contributor.
The June report drew a line under that tailwind. For goods sold in Q3 2026, “the overall effect of external factors is assessed to be flat compared with the corresponding period the previous year.” More importantly, it warned that “the actions that contributed a substantial effect from and including the third quarter of 2025 will be included in the comparative figures from and including the third quarter of 2026.” In plain language, the easy year-on-year comparison is over; from this quarter H&M is lapping its own supply-chain improvements.
That is why the consensus gross margin of 53.37% is only about 45 basis points above last year rather than the 120 to 180 points of the past several quarters. Markdowns are guided at the same level as Q3 2025, when they were “marginally higher” than the year before. Freight is a wild card: Inditex flagged transport costs from Middle East disruption as the reason its operating expenses grew faster than sales in the first half, and H&M noted it was “closely monitoring developments in the Middle East,” adding that a low share of air freight gave it room to reroute.
Regions: where H&M’s sales are actually moving
H&M reports six regions, and the pattern over the last two quarters says more about the sales problem than the group total does. In Q2 2026, Southern Europe grew 5% in local currencies and Asia, Oceania and Africa grew 2%, but Western Europe, the largest region at SEK 18,975 million, fell 3% and North and South America fell 1%. Eastern Europe slipped 1% and the Nordics were flat.
| Region | Q2 2026 sales, SEK m | Change in SEK | Change in local currencies | Stores, 31 May 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Nordics | 5,176 | 0% | 0% | 354 |
| Western Europe | 18,975 | -5% | -3% | 985 |
| Eastern Europe | 4,989 | -2% | -1% | 473 |
| Southern Europe | 7,484 | 0% | +5% | 564 |
| North and South America | 11,530 | -4% | -1% | 761 |
| Asia, Oceania and Africa | 6,674 | -5% | +2% | 901 |
| Group | 54,828 | -3% | roughly flat | 4,038 |
Source: H&M six-month report 2026. The group ended May with 128 fewer stores than a year earlier, partly because all Monki stores closed during 2025.
A year ago the Americas region grew 1% in local currencies in Q3 2025 while shrinking 8% in kronor, the widest currency gap of any region. That is the segment that contains the US, historically H&M’s second-largest single market after Germany per its annual reports, and it is where tariff costs, tariff refunds and the strong krona all collide. A return to positive local-currency growth in the Americas would be the cleanest evidence that the US consumer is absorbing the 10% duty; a second negative print would suggest H&M is not passing it through and is instead losing volume.
Expansion is going south, not west
The growth investment is going into Latin America rather than the US. H&M opened its first Rio de Janeiro store in Q2 after entering Brazil in August 2025, plans a first Paraguay store in the second half of 2026 and Argentina in 2027, and has a franchise pipeline in Venezuela. Those markets are small in group terms but they are where the net store count is rising: the Americas added four stores in the first half while Asia, Oceania and Africa lost 14.
How H&M compares with Inditex and Shein this earnings season
The comparison every H&M report invites is with Inditex, and the Zara owner has already set a high bar. Its first-half results on September 9 showed sales of EUR 19.8 billion (about USD 22.7 billion at 1.148 dollars per euro), up 7.6% reported and 9.2% in constant currency, net income of EUR 3.0 billion, up 6.8%, and a gross margin of 58.7% against 58.3%. Operating profit rose to EUR 3.843 billion, a 19.5% margin, and store and online sales in constant currency ran 10% ahead between August 1 and September 7.
On tariffs, Inditex told analysts that the impact at group level was limited because it sources from almost 50 origins, and that “any potential impact from tariff refunds will be limited for the group.” That is a sharper statement than anything H&M has made, and it frames Thursday: a group growing at 9% to 10% in constant currency with a 19.5% operating margin says refunds do not matter; a group growing at 0.7% with an 8.9% margin cannot afford to say the same.
| Company | Latest reported period | Sales | Constant-currency growth | Gross margin | Operating margin | Stated US tariff position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inditex | H1 FY2026 (Feb–Jul), reported Sept 9 | EUR 19.8bn (about USD 22.7bn) | +9.2% | 58.7% | 19.5% | “Limited” group impact; refunds limited; sourcing from about 50 origins |
| H&M | Q2 FY2026 (Mar–May), reported June 25 | SEK 54.8bn (about USD 5.6bn) | roughly flat | 56.6% | 10.8% reported, 12.0% ex one-offs | “Structured process” on US tariff law; no figure |
| H&M consensus | Q3 FY2026 (Jun–Aug), due Sept 24 | SEK 57.1bn (about USD 5.8bn) | +0.7% | 53.4% | 8.9% | Unknown until Thursday |
| PVH | Q2 FY2026 guidance, reported Sept 2 | Revenue guided down 3% to 4% | n/a | n/a | Includes about USD 100m of IEEPA refunds, roughly 470bp | Refunds quantified in guidance |
Sources: company reports, Modular Finance, shopappy reporting. Quarters are not aligned; Inditex reports on a February to January year.
Shein is the other shadow over the numbers. The Singapore-headquartered group listed in Hong Kong this year and its shares hit a post-IPO low on September 14 after a product-safety recall in Australia and New Zealand and a Jefferies underperform initiation, as shopappy reported in its piece on the Shein share slump. The loss of the US de minimis exemption and the EU’s new EUR 3 parcel duty have raised Shein’s landed cost in H&M’s two biggest regions, which is one reason European fast-fashion incumbents have held gross margin better than feared; Thursday will show whether H&M has converted that into volume.
Restructuring and currency: the two lines behind the reported number
Two items sit between H&M’s operating performance and the figure that prints on Thursday morning: the one-time costs management has chosen to take, and the exchange rates it cannot choose. Both flatter or punish the reported number without saying much about demand.
What the SEK 679 million bought
Q2 carried SEK 679 million (about USD 69 million) of restructuring costs “relating to the implementation of organisational changes in the company’s sales markets and central sales organisations,” plus SEK 565 million of provisions for transition costs across portfolio brands, tech and logistics, for total provisions of SEK 1,244 million against SEK 18 million a year earlier. Excluding the restructuring, selling and administrative expenses fell 2% in local currencies.
Ervér described the purpose as reducing “the complexity of the organisation” and moving “decisions closer to the customer,” and said that in the second half the group would “start upgrading the digital infrastructure” behind assortment and inventory planning. The relevant question for Thursday is whether any further one-time charges appear in Q3; the consensus operating profit of SEK 5,095 million is a reported figure, so a second round of restructuring would count against it unless analysts had anticipated it.
The portfolio brands, which include COS, Weekday, & Other Stories and ARKET, are a separate soft spot. Their sales fell 7% in local currencies in Q2 and 4% over the half, partly because Monki stores closed in 2025 and partly because management pushed full-price selling. Early June trading for the portfolio brands was positive, the company said, so a return to growth there is a plausible small upside surprise.
The krona is doing the market’s job
The single largest reason H&M’s reported numbers look worse than its operating numbers is the Swedish krona. Currency translation cut Q2 sales by just under three percentage points and Q3 2025 sales by around five points. At about 9.84 kronor per dollar in mid-September, the krona remains far stronger than in the 2024 comparison base, which means a local-currency gain of 0.7% is consistent with reported sales that are flat or fractionally down.
The flip side is purchasing. H&M buys most of its goods in dollars and sells most of them in euros and kronor, so a weaker dollar lowers cost of goods sold with a lag of roughly two quarters. That effect helped the 2025 margin expansion and is part of what the June report meant by “external factors,” which it now guides flat. Investors will want to know whether the dollar’s moves since May have shifted that assessment for Q4, which is the quarter that decides the full-year margin.
What to watch at 08:00 CEST on September 24
The report will be judged on six lines, in roughly this order of importance.
- Net sales versus SEK 57,120 million and the local-currency growth rate versus 0.7%. A print below SEK 56.5 billion would mark a third consecutive sales miss.
- Operating profit versus SEK 5,095 million, and whether any one-time costs sit inside it. Anything above SEK 5.3 billion on a clean basis would be a beat.
- Gross margin versus 53.4%, with the split between supply-chain actions, markdowns and external factors.
- The tariff paragraph: a quantified IEEPA refund, a receivable in the notes, or another qualitative line. Also whether H&M comments on the Section 301 case the US Court of International Trade hears on September 30, which could void the 10% apparel duty entirely.
- September 2026 sales guidance, against a base that was itself flat.
- Stock-in-trade as a percentage of rolling sales, and any admission that availability, not demand, is still capping the top line.
The Stockholm reaction will be immediate, but the more consequential reading may come later in the day when US apparel importers and their counsel compare H&M’s refund language with their own filings. If the largest European fast-fashion group tells the market it expects material money back from US Customs, the refund story stops being a US-only earnings quirk and becomes a global sector theme.
Frequently asked questions
When exactly does H&M report its Q3 2026 results?
The nine-month report for 1 December 2025 to 31 August 2026 is scheduled for Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 08:00 CEST, which is 06:00 UTC and 02:00 US Eastern, according to H&M’s financial calendar. The analyst conference call follows at 09:00 CEST.
What does the consensus expect for H&M’s third quarter?
The Modular Finance consensus of 27 contributors expects net sales of SEK 57,120 million, local-currency growth of 0.72%, gross profit of SEK 30,476 million (a 53.37% margin) and operating profit of SEK 5,095 million (an 8.91% margin). That compares with SEK 57,017 million of sales and SEK 4,914 million of operating profit in Q3 2025.
Why did H&M’s shares fall after the second-quarter report?
Sales of SEK 54,828 million and operating profit of SEK 5,913 million both missed the Reuters consensus (SEK 55.27 billion and SEK 6.38 billion respectively), and management said inventory kept too tight had in some cases prevented it from fully meeting demand. The shares fell about 2% in early trading on June 25, 2026.
What is the “structured process” on US tariffs that H&M mentioned?
Note 5 of the six-month report says the company “has initiated a structured process to align with the steps set out in the applicable laws and regulatory frameworks concerning tariffs in the U.S.” H&M has not quantified it. In context it most plausibly refers to claiming refunds of IEEPA tariffs that CBP is now paying out, as PVH and Dillard’s have done, but the company has not confirmed that reading.
Which US tariffs currently apply to H&M’s imports?
Most apparel entering the US is subject to the Section 301 forced-labor tariffs at a flat 10%, with a higher 12.5% tier for some origins. The textile tariff-rate quotas that USTR signalled for Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia and Malaysia have not been established, so no quota relief is available. The duties are being challenged at the US Court of International Trade, with oral argument set for September 30, 2026.
How does H&M’s performance compare with Inditex?
Inditex reported first-half sales of EUR 19.8 billion, up 9.2% in constant currency, with a 58.7% gross margin and a 19.5% operating margin, and said its August 1 to September 7 sales were up 10%. H&M’s consensus for Q3 implies 0.7% local-currency growth, a 53.4% gross margin and an 8.9% operating margin. Inditex also said tariff refunds would be immaterial for the group, while H&M has not commented.
What did H&M guide for the third quarter?
In June the company said the overall effect of external factors on goods sold in Q3 would be flat year on year, that markdowns as a share of sales would be at the same level as Q3 2025, and that June sales in local currencies would be on par with June 2025. It also warned that the supply-chain gains that began in Q3 2025 are now in the comparison base.
How much of H&M’s sales are online and how many stores does it have?
Just over 30% of group sales take place online, per the six-month report. The group operated 4,038 stores at 31 May 2026, 128 fewer than a year earlier, with the reduction partly reflecting the closure of all Monki stores in 2025.
Where can I find the official report on the day?
H&M publishes the report and the presentation on its investor site at 08:00 CEST. The dates for this and subsequent reports are listed on the H&M Group financial calendar.