Daily news from the global retail and commerce industry, market reports, and analysis.
Retailers have booked most of their IEEPA tariff refunds, and the second-quarter filings split into reinvestors (Walmart, Dollar Tree, Burlington) and bankers (Target, Home Depot, TJX, Ross, Dollar General). The signals point to the banked cash reaching shareholders by the March 2027 reporting round, with Target resuming buybacks as the test case.
PwC’s Consumer Sentiment Index turned positive for the first time since 2021, rising to +1 in August from -13 in April, with 14% of shoppers already buying for Christmas. The firm warns the cheer will fade with autumn food and fuel inflation and the 28 October Budget, and tells retailers to launch Christmas now.
The ONS publishes August 2026 retail sales for Great Britain at 7am on Friday 18 September, a day after the Bank of England decision and two days after CPI. BRC-KPMG, Barclays and GfK data already point to food growth, falling non-food sales and cautious big-ticket spending.
The Census Bureau publishes August retail sales on September 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET, hours before the Fed’s rate decision, after a 0.6% July decline. Record gasoline prices and a stronger auto selling rate shape the headline, while sentiment and tariff-refund price cuts cloud the core.
Bain & Company forecasts US November to December retail sales above $1 trillion for the first time, up 4.5% year over year. More than half of that growth is inflation, and online sales are set to grow 9% against 2.5% in stores.
Four US retail earnings reports in ten days of August 2026 booked a tariff refund and immediately named fuel and energy as the offset. The pattern suggests energy displaces tariffs as the quantified cost headwind in Q3 guidance issued November 17 to December 4, 2026.
Component costs have re-based upward while US electronics retail margins are still expanding, and that gap has to close. Signals point to the pass-through arriving as reduced base configurations, visible in holiday 2026 assortments and named in guidance by early March 2027.
US retailers are spending on automation far faster than they are depreciating it, with Walmart’s capex now running at 1.83 times its depreciation. Signals from three August filings point to depreciation becoming a quantified, openly discussed margin headwind by the spring 2027 guidance season.
Walmart, Target and Amazon just posted profit growth running three to five times sales growth, driven by advertising, membership and marketplace fees rather than merchandise margin. Signals point to at least two more top-25 US retailers putting a standalone number on that income by the end of March 2027.
The Census Bureau publishes July retail and food services sales on Friday, August 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET, the last broad read on US demand before 50% Section 338 tariffs on Canadian goods take effect. June’s $768.6bn baseline was flattered by a late Prime Day, leaving July with a hard comparison.