UK shoppers will spend a record £28.52bn online between 1 November and 31 December, according to Adobe’s annual UK Holiday Forecast, reported on Thursday 5 November by Retail Gazette and Retail Times. That would be 6.2% more than last year’s £26.9bn, and Adobe expects discounts to climb to 25% from Black Friday on 27 November.
The number arrived on an awkward day. At midday the Bank of England raised interest rates to 4%, the first increase in more than three years, while Next reported that its UK sales had grown only 2.0% in the previous quarter. So the useful question is not just how big Adobe thinks Christmas will be, but how likely it is to get there, and when shoppers should actually buy.
In short
- Record forecast: Adobe expects £28.52bn of UK online spending in November and December, up 6.2%, within a fourth quarter total of about £40bn, up 6.4%.
- Biggest days: Black Friday is forecast at £1.24bn, Cyber Monday should pass £1bn for the first time, and the four-day Cyber Weekend should reach £4.05bn.
- Discount peak: average discounts are projected to rise from 12% in early November to 18% just before Black Friday and 25% from the start of Cyber Weekend.
- A faster pace is needed: 6.2% growth compares with 4.1% last Christmas and 3.3% in the first eight months of 2026, and the Bank of England has just raised rates.
- Treat the AI number with care: Adobe forecasts 214% growth in AI-referred traffic, but it overestimated that measure last year, and traffic growth is not the same as sales.
What has Adobe forecast for Christmas 2026?
Adobe’s headline is £28.52bn of UK online spending across the 61 days from 1 November to 31 December. The company says the forecast is powered by Adobe Analytics, which analyses direct consumer transactions across hundreds of billions of visits to UK retailer websites, tracking 100 million products in 18 categories. It is therefore a measure of spending on retail websites, not a survey of what people say they intend to do.
The figure sits inside a wider projection for October to December of about £40bn, up 6.4%. Taking the November and December figure away from that total suggests about £11.5bn for October, and growth of roughly 7% for that month on our arithmetic. Because the £40bn is rounded, that is only a guide.
The table sets Adobe’s 2026 forecast against the results it reported for 2025. The 2025 figures come from the company’s own recap, published in January.
| Measure | 2025 result | 2026 forecast | Forecast change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Online spending, 1 Nov to 31 Dec | £26.9bn | £28.52bn | +6.2% |
| Cyber Weekend (four days) | £3.8bn | £4.05bn | +6.6% |
| Black Friday | £1.16bn | £1.24bn | +7.1% |
| Cyber Monday | Not given in recap | Above £1bn | +7.6% |
| Growth in AI-referred retail traffic, Nov and Dec | +329% | +214% | Slower growth, larger base |
| Growth in AI-referred traffic, Boxing Day | +685% | +268% | Slower growth, larger base |
In cash terms, Adobe is forecasting about £1.66bn more online spending than last year. The 4.1% growth in 2025 added about £1.06bn, so the forecast asks for a gain more than half as large again. Our sums, based on Adobe’s published percentages, are rounded.
Why you may see a different headline figure
Not all of the coverage agrees. Performance Marketing World’s headline on Thursday put the festive total at £38.5bn, although its standfirst cites the same Adobe forecast and the same 6.2% rise. A figure of £38.5bn would mean growth of about 43% on last year, so it cannot sit alongside a 6.2% increase.
The wording carried by Retail Times and Retail Technology Innovation Hub, and the figure reported by Retail Gazette, is £28.52bn. Retail Week’s headline rounds it up to “nearly £30bn”. We have used £28.52bn throughout.
Shoppers will also find a figure of £6.7bn this week, from PayPal-commissioned research reported by the Express and regional newspapers. It looks far larger than Adobe’s £1.24bn for Black Friday, or its £4.05bn for the whole of Cyber Weekend, but the two are not measuring the same thing. Adobe’s figure is drawn from transactions on retail websites and covers specific days.
PayPal’s is an estimate for spending “across Black Friday and Cyber Monday” linked to a survey of 2,000 adults, and the coverage does not set out how the total was calculated or whether it is limited to online purchases. Last year PwC’s survey-based estimate was £6.4bn, so large totals of this sort are not new.
How accurate was Adobe’s forecast last year?
On the total, very accurate. In autumn 2025 Adobe predicted £26.9bn and growth of more than 4%, and in January it reported exactly £26.9bn and growth of 4.1%. Its Cyber Weekend figure of £3.8bn was also right. That record is the strongest reason to take this year’s total seriously.
The detail was less tidy, and the misses matter because they fall on the measures now getting most attention. Black Friday came in below forecast, and AI-referred traffic grew more slowly than predicted. Mobile went the other way, comfortably beating Adobe’s estimate.
| Measure, Christmas 2025 | Adobe forecast | Adobe reported result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total online spending | £26.9bn | £26.9bn | In line |
| Cyber Weekend | £3.8bn | £3.8bn | In line |
| Black Friday | £1.19bn | £1.16bn | About 2.5% below |
| Boxing Day | Above £500m | Above £500m | In line |
| Mobile spending | £15.3bn | £16.5bn | About 8% above |
| AI-referred traffic, season | +410% | +329% | Below |
| AI-referred traffic, Boxing Day | +750% | +685% | Below |
One season is a small sample, so none of this proves a pattern. It does suggest a sensible way to read the 2026 release: the season total has the firmest track record, while single-day and AI projections deserve more caution. Adobe’s recap of the 2025 season gives the full results against which this year’s forecast will be judged.
Can 6.2% growth survive the interest rate rise?
It can, but the forecast is asking for a clear acceleration. Adobe’s own data shows UK online spending of £74.5bn from January to August 2026, up 3.3% on the £72.1bn of the same period in 2025. Growth was just 2.1% from January to April, and picked up to 4.9% in the three months to 1 August, helped by Amazon Prime Day moving into June.
Adobe’s forecast was reported hours before the Bank’s decision, and the release as carried by trade publications makes no mention of it. That does not make it wrong. A quarter-point rise will not change most household budgets by Black Friday, but it does add to a difficult mood.
What the Bank of England did
The BBC reports that the Bank raised its rate from 3.75% to 4%, with eight of the nine committee members backing that move and one preferring 4.25%. The Bank now expects inflation, 3.5% in September, to peak at 4.9% in the middle of next year. Governor Andrew Bailey said the decision “shouldn’t be seen as the first in an inevitable long sequence of hikes”, but warned that unless the Middle East conflict is resolved, “neither does it seem likely to be the last increase”.
The immediate cash effect is limited to a minority of households. UK Finance figures quoted by the BBC say 510,000 tracker mortgage holders face a rise of about £31 a month, while typical standard variable rate borrowers could pay about £14 more if their lender passes it on. Some 87% of mortgage holders are on fixed deals, so they see no immediate change, and many will instead feel the higher cost when those deals end.
The Guardian’s assessment is that UK high streets are struggling and that households, with low savings, are “spending to stand still”. It also notes that the Office for Budget Responsibility expects inflation to peak at 3.75%, well below the Bank’s forecast. The BBC adds that millions of households are braced for a large rise in energy bills in January, which falls just after Adobe’s forecast period ends.
What UK trading data says so far
Recent evidence points in both directions, which is why a single headline number can mislead. The strongest support for Adobe comes from BDO’s October sales tracker, which showed online sales up 10.1% against 2.2% in stores. However, BDO itself warned against reading too much into a month that followed a very weak September.
| Source and period | Reading | What it suggests for the forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Adobe, Jan to Aug 2026 | Online spending +3.3% | Forecast needs a faster pace |
| ONS, September 2026 | Non-store sales volumes -2.2% on the month; online values +6.8% on the year | Mixed |
| BDO, October 2026 | Online +10.1%, stores +2.2% | Supportive, but a rebound from September |
| Next, 13 weeks to 31 Oct | UK online +4.4%, UK shops -1.7% | Online ahead, but below 6.2% |
| Bain, Nov and Dec forecast | Online +7.5%, stores +2.8%, total +3.5% | Supportive |
| GfK, October 2026 | Confidence -24; major purchases index -22 | A warning on big-ticket buying |
Next’s third-quarter statement is a useful real-world check. Its UK sales fell in three straight weeks from mid-September in warm weather, then rose by between 2.3% and 5.9% once it turned colder, and it has guided to UK growth of 2.0% in the current quarter. Next is only one retailer, but it has one of the largest UK online clothing businesses.
Bain’s forecast also complicates the picture. It expects the strongest Christmas growth in four years for retail overall, yet says more than half of the increase in value will come from higher prices rather than people buying more. Adobe, by contrast, expects online prices to be 2.5% lower than last year, and the two measures cover different baskets.
If Adobe’s price estimate holds, 6.2% more spending implies shoppers buying roughly 9% more goods. That is a large volume gain for a period of falling confidence and tighter budgets, and it is the assumption we would watch most closely. On balance, a total close to Adobe’s seems plausible given online’s advantage over stores, but the risks look tilted to the downside rather than the upside.
When will online discounts peak, and what should you buy on which day?
Adobe projects a steady build through November: an average of 12% off in early November, 18% just before Black Friday, then a peak of 25% from the start of Cyber Weekend on 27 November. That early November figure matches the 12% average discount Adobe recorded for Prime Day in June. On those projections, a shopper in no hurry would generally do better waiting than buying now, subject to stock.
Best day by category
The forecast splits the deepest cuts between the two main days. Black Friday looks stronger for clothing, televisions and toys, whereas Cyber Monday is the projected peak for computers and electronics. We have added the June Prime Day discounts where Adobe published a directly comparable category.
| Category | Forecast best day | Projected discount | Prime Day 2026 discount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clothing | Black Friday, 27 Nov | 25% | 17% |
| Televisions | Black Friday, 27 Nov | 24% | 15% |
| Toys | Black Friday, 27 Nov | 20% | Not published |
| Sporting goods | Black Friday, 27 Nov | 17% | Not published |
| Furniture | Black Friday, 27 Nov | 15% | Not published |
| Computers | Cyber Monday, 30 Nov | 24% | Not published |
| Electronics | Cyber Monday, 30 Nov | 23% | 17% |
| Appliances | Cyber Monday, 30 Nov | 16% | 12% |
These are category averages, not promises about any one product. A particular television may be cheaper on another day, and popular models can sell out before the projected peak. Treat the table as a guide to timing rather than proof that a specific offer is good.
A forecast average also says nothing about whether the starting price was fair. Which? found that eight in 10 Black Friday deals it tracked around the 2024 sale were the same price or cheaper at other times of year. YouGov’s Great Britain report for 2026 says 47% of likely shoppers find it difficult to know whether a discount is genuine, and that gap is why price history matters more than the percentage on the banner.
Why does Adobe expect both luxury and basics to sell?
Adobe describes two behaviours running side by side, and both are driven by value. First, shoppers are expected to use the discount window to trade up. It projects that units sold from the most expensive quarter of products will rise by more than 13%, led by personal care (+38%), sporting goods (+34%) and electronics (+30%).
That extends a trend already in its 2026 data. From January to August, the most expensive products gained share of units sold in electronics (up 8.2%), clothing (up 4.4%) and sporting goods (up 3.2%). Yet in appliances, home and garden, and tools, the cheapest products were the ones gaining share, so trading up is far from universal.
The second behaviour is stocking up on everyday items. During Cyber Week, Adobe expects orders to jump compared with pre-season levels: clothing basics by 215%, personal care and beauty by 148%, baby products by 84% and household cleaning by 47%. These are increases against a low everyday baseline rather than growth on last year, so they are not comparable with the 6.2% headline.
The PayPal research points the same way. In its survey, 48% of Black Friday shoppers said they had waited two months or more to buy a particular item in the sales, and it suggests many households now treat the event as a planned way to stretch their Christmas budget. That patience could help the peak days, but it also means spending may simply be moved from October and early November rather than added.
Some 45% of Britons plan to shop the sales, according to PayPal, with beauty and fragrance (44%), fashion and trainers (39%) and toys (38%) topping wish lists. Debit cards are the most popular way to pay at 30%, followed by digital wallets at 12%, while 9% plan to use buy now, pay later. PayPal sells both wallet and pay-later services, which is worth bearing in mind when reading those results.
How much of this is really down to AI?
Less than the headlines imply, at least on the evidence published so far. Adobe forecasts that retail traffic from generative AI platforms will rise 214% year on year in November and December, with growth of 158% on Black Friday, 226% on Cyber Monday and 268% on Boxing Day. However, that describes growth in referred visits. The coverage of the release gives no figure for AI’s share of the £28.52bn, and Adobe’s 2025 recap described the numbers as “still relatively small”.
Adobe’s own series shows growth slowing as the base gets larger: 149% in August and 111% in September. Its forecast therefore requires a sharp pick-up to 214% over the season, with the peak on Boxing Day. Last year’s season forecast of 410% was followed by a result of 329%.
Adobe’s forecast for the US this season is much lower, at 130%, and we have already set out why that US figure may also prove too high. The UK may genuinely be earlier in its adoption curve, which can produce faster percentage growth from a smaller base. Even so, the 2025 miss and the slower autumn trend are reasons not to treat 214% as settled.
The stronger evidence for AI is on quality rather than volume. Adobe says that by August, UK conversion from AI sources was 20% higher than from other sources, having first overtaken them in May. AI-referred visitors also spent 23% longer on site and viewed 13% more pages per visit.
Survey results vary, partly because they ask different questions. An Adobe-commissioned survey of 2,014 UK consumers in March found 37% had used AI assistants to shop, while Bain says 20% of online shoppers expect to start their Christmas shopping on a generative AI platform, rising to about 41% of Gen Z. YouGov found planned AI use among likely Black Friday shoppers had risen to 34% from 19% last year.
The same YouGov report ranks Britain 18th of 19 markets for AI shopping, and 48% of AI shoppers worry about biased or sponsored recommendations. Adobe’s mid-year report also says 34% complete purchases inside the AI assistant, but it applies that figure to Gen Z and Millennial shoppers in one passage and UK AI shoppers in another, so we would not lean on it. The fair summary is that AI is becoming a common research tool for UK shoppers, and that its effect on total spending remains unproven.
What should UK shoppers do before Black Friday?
The projected discount pattern gives shoppers a simple framework, but it only helps if they prepare. Write the list now, record the current price of anything you plan to buy, and check its price history where a tracker is available. That way you can tell a real reduction from a large percentage attached to a price that has recently risen.
- Match the day to the category: on Adobe’s projections, clothing and televisions look best on Black Friday, and computers and electronics on Cyber Monday.
- Do not wait on scarce items: if an item is hard to find or needed by a set date, a few extra percentage points may not be worth the risk.
- Check the total price: the CMA wrote to online retailers on 2 November reminding them that mandatory delivery fees must be included in the total price at every stage.
- Be sceptical of countdowns: false claims that a deal is available only for a limited time are banned, and the regulator can now fine firms directly.
- Allow time for delivery: if the item is a gift, compare the retailer’s order deadline with the carrier’s Christmas cut-off before relying on a late sale.
The regulatory backdrop is tougher than it was a year ago. The CMA fined Wayfair £4.8m and Appliances Direct £1.2m on 14 October, and our guide to the rules on fake countdown deals sets out what is now banned under the Digital Markets, Competition and Consumers Act 2024. Most online orders also carry a 14-day right to cancel.
How to pay after the rate rise
The BBC notes that a higher Bank rate raises borrowing costs on products such as credit cards and loans, although how far and how quickly depends on the lender. Anyone planning to carry a balance into the new year should check their actual rate rather than assume it is unchanged. Clearing a card balance in full avoids that interest while keeping Section 75 protection on purchases between £100 and £30,000.
Pay-later plans have also changed. This is the first Christmas under FCA regulation of deferred payment credit, so affordability checks can now block a pay-later purchase even on small baskets. Fees and rates differ by provider: Next, for example, is raising the APR on existing pay in 3 accounts from 29.9% to 34.9% in the current quarter. Shoppers should not assume every “pay in 3” product costs nothing if something goes wrong.
What does it mean for UK online sellers and independent shops?
For online retailers and marketplace sellers, the forecast is a reminder that the season is concentrated but not confined to a few days. Cyber Weekend would be about 14.2% of the two-month total, and Black Friday alone about 4.3%. On our arithmetic, the other 57 days would still average about £429m a day, against an overall average of about £468m.
That matters for margin. Chasing a 25% average discount only makes sense if the extra volume pays for it, and Adobe’s projected price falls come at a time of higher costs. The OBR’s chief economist told MPs this week that UK company profit margins have dropped to 10–11% from an average of 13–14%, according to the Guardian. Sellers with variable rate loans, common among smaller firms according to the BBC, also now face higher interest.
Adobe’s advice to retailers focuses on being easy to find and easy to trust. Its digital insights director, Vivek Pandya, said: “For retailers, winning this festive season requires more than just slashing prices. Brands must ensure that value is transparent, and that product data, educational buying guides, and customer support are clear and easily surfaced across the AI and social ecosystems guiding consumer decisions.” Adobe sells analytics and AI visibility software, so this is not disinterested advice, but clean product data and clear delivery terms are low-risk work for any seller.
Adobe also forecasts that revenue share from social networks will rise 24% and from influencer partnerships 7%, and these are the two channels it expects to lead marketing growth. It lists video games, toys, electronics, appliances, jewellery and personal care as the categories with the strongest AI referral growth. Sellers in those areas have the most reason to check how their products appear when a shopper asks an assistant for a recommendation.
For high street shops, the comparison with Bain’s forecast is sobering: online growth of 7.5% against 2.8% in stores, while Bain says more than half of the overall rise in sales value will come from higher prices. Still, physical trade has its own peaks. Sensormatic predicts the Saturday after Black Friday, 28 November, will be the busiest day for store visits, followed by Boxing Day and Super Saturday on 19 December, and its data showed footfall up 29% on Halloween, helped by the date falling on a Saturday this year.
What should we watch next?
The first real test comes on 27 November. Adobe’s Black Friday figure was the one it missed last year, so £1.24bn is a clear early marker, although bad weather or a strong Cyber Monday could easily shift spending within the weekend. The more important reading is £4.05bn for Cyber Weekend as a whole.
Official figures and company updates will then fill in the picture. ONS retail sales should show whether September’s online dip and BDO’s October jump were simply weather, and Next’s next update on 6 January 2027 will give a direct read on UK online demand through the peak. Marks and Spencer follows with a Christmas trading statement on 8 January.
Adobe’s own results should come in January, as they did this year. They will settle whether UK shoppers really did deliver £28.52bn and whether AI referrals reached 214%. Until then, the forecast is best read for what it is: a well-grounded estimate from a company with a good record on the total, published a few hours before the cost of borrowing went up.
Frequently asked questions
How much will UK shoppers spend online this Christmas?
Adobe forecasts £28.52bn of UK online spending between 1 November and 31 December 2026, up 6.2% on last year’s £26.9bn. It expects total online spending from October to December to reach about £40bn, up 6.4%. These are forecasts, and the results are not expected until after Christmas.
How much will be spent online on Black Friday 2026 in the UK?
Adobe forecasts £1.24bn on Friday 27 November, up 7.1%, making it the biggest single online shopping day of the year. Last year it predicted £1.19bn for Black Friday and reported £1.16bn. PayPal’s separate £6.7bn estimate covers Black Friday and Cyber Monday and is based on different research, so the figures are not comparable.
When is the best time to buy in the Black Friday sales?
Adobe projects average discounts of 25% from the start of Cyber Weekend on 27 November, compared with 12% in early November and 18% just before Black Friday. It expects the deepest cuts on clothing, televisions, toys, sporting goods and furniture on Black Friday, and on computers, electronics and appliances on Cyber Monday. These are averages, so check the price history of the specific item.
What date is Cyber Monday 2026?
Cyber Monday falls on 30 November 2026. Adobe forecasts it will pass £1bn of UK online spending for the first time, with growth of 7.6%, the fastest of the four-day Cyber Weekend.
Will the interest rate rise affect Christmas shopping?
Probably at the margin rather than immediately. The Bank of England raised its rate to 4% on 5 November, which affects tracker and some variable mortgages, as well as new borrowing, while most mortgage holders are on fixed deals. The larger risk for retailers is that it adds to weak confidence ahead of higher energy bills in January.
Is AI really driving UK Christmas shopping?
AI is driving fast growth in traffic, not yet a proven share of spending. Adobe forecasts AI-referred visits to UK retail sites will rise 214% in November and December, and says those visitors convert better than others. However, its coverage gives no AI share of the £28.52bn total, and it overestimated AI traffic growth last year.
Why do some reports say £38.5bn?
Performance Marketing World’s headline gave £38.5bn, but the same 6.2% growth rate cannot produce that figure from last year’s £26.9bn. Adobe’s forecast as reported by Retail Times, Retail Gazette and Retail Technology Innovation Hub is £28.52bn. Adobe’s wider figure for October to December is about £40bn.
Are Black Friday discounts genuine?
Some are and some are not, which is why price history matters. Which? found that eight in 10 Black Friday deals it tracked around the 2024 sale were the same price or cheaper at other times of year. The CMA can now fine firms directly for fake time-limited offers and fined Wayfair and Appliances Direct in October.