Retail sales in Great Britain fell by more than expected in September, and online shopping took the biggest hit. Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published on Friday 23 October show sales volumes dropped 0.4% on the month, against a City consensus of a 0.1% fall. Non-store retailing, which is mostly online, fell 2.2%, the steepest decline of any part of the sector. On the same morning, GfK’s long-running barometer showed consumer confidence falling 11 points to -24, its sharpest one-month drop outside the Covid pandemic since the 2016 Brexit vote.
The timing is awkward for everyone with something to sell. Black Friday falls on 27 November, the Chancellor, John Healey, delivers his first Budget on Wednesday 28 October, and inflation rose to 3.5% in September. This article sets out what the September numbers actually say, why online sales fell, how the data compares with recent months and with retailers’ own trading statements, and what it means for UK shoppers and sellers heading into the peak season.
In short
- Retail sales volumes fell 0.4% in September 2026, worse than the 0.1% fall economists expected; excluding fuel the drop was 0.7%.
- Online and non-store sales fell 2.2% by volume, the biggest fall in the sector, as warm weather left autumn and winter clothing ranges unsold.
- Online’s share of all retail spending slipped to 28.8% from 28.9% in August, although online values are still 6.8% higher than a year ago.
- GfK consumer confidence fell 11 points to -24 in October, and its major purchase index dropped 14 points to -22, a warning sign for big-ticket Christmas spending.
- Black Friday looks muted: Shopify expects UK shoppers to plan around £165 of Black Friday weekend spending, down from £181 last year.
What did the ONS retail sales figures for September 2026 show?
The headline is a 0.4% fall in the volume of goods sold in Great Britain between August and September. Volume strips out price changes, so it measures how much shoppers actually bought rather than how much they paid. According to the ONS bulletin, sales were still 0.8% higher than in September 2025, and the three months to September were 0.7% up on the previous quarter.
The quarterly picture looks better than the monthly one because August was revised up. The ONS now says August volumes rose 0.7%, rather than the 0.5% it first estimated, while July was revised to a 0.4% fall from 0.5%. Compared with the same quarter of 2025, July to September volumes were up 1.5%.
The Guardian reported that the September fall was “much steeper” than the 0.1% decline forecast by economists. Strip out automotive fuel, which rose sharply, and the decline in core retail was 0.7%, again against a forecast of a 0.1% fall. That ex-fuel number is the one most retail analysts watch, because it reflects what households chose to buy in shops and online rather than how much they spent filling their tanks.
The key numbers at a glance
| Measure (Great Britain) | September 2026 | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Total retail sales volume, month on month | -0.4% | Consensus forecast -0.1% |
| Total volume, excluding fuel, month on month | -0.7% | Consensus forecast -0.1% |
| Total volume, year on year | +0.8% | September 2025 base |
| Three months to September vs previous three months | +0.7% | Q3 vs Q3 2025: +1.5% |
| August volume (revised) | +0.7% | First estimate +0.5% |
| Non-store (mostly online) volume, month on month | -2.2% | Largest fall in the sector |
| Online spending value, month on month | -0.4% | August +3.0% |
| Online spending value, year on year | +6.8% | Q3 vs Q3 2025: +7.4% |
| Online share of all retail spending | 28.8% | August 28.9% |
| Automotive fuel volume, month on month | +2.2% | Fuel value +6.1% |
Sources: ONS Retail sales, Great Britain: September 2026; consensus and sector figures as reported by the Guardian.
Why did online sales fall so sharply in September?
Online was the weakest part of the market. The Guardian reported that non-store retailing, which the ONS category is dominated by internet-only sellers and mail order, fell 2.2% by volume, the biggest percentage decline of any retail sector. The ONS bulletin says non-store volumes had a strong August and then fell back in September, so part of the drop is a hangover from the previous month.
The main cause was the weather. According to the ONS, online clothing retailers told the statistics office that their autumn and winter ranges did not sell well because September was unseasonably warm. Coats, knitwear and boots are the categories that usually lift online fashion sales in late September, and they stayed in the warehouse. Drapers summed up the release with the headline “Warm weather hits retail sales”.
Value versus volume: why online looks better in pounds
There is an important distinction between the volume figures and the value figures. In cash terms, online spending fell 0.4% between August and September, after a 3.0% rise in August. But online spending was still 6.8% higher than in September 2025, and the July to September quarter was 7.4% up on the same period last year, according to the ONS.
That gap reflects two things: prices have risen, and online’s long-term growth trend has not reversed. A single soft month after a strong August does not mean shoppers are abandoning the internet. It does mean that discretionary online categories, especially fashion, are the first thing households trim when the weather and the budget both work against them.
Online’s share of spending holds near 29%
The ONS measure most people quote, the proportion of all retail spending made online, slipped from 28.9% in August to 28.8% in September. For context, the online share was around a fifth of spending before the pandemic and spiked above a third during the lockdowns of early 2021, before settling back. A share just under 29% means that more than £1 in every £4 spent at retail in Great Britain still goes through a website or an app.
For marketplace sellers on Amazon UK, eBay, Etsy and Vinted, the practical reading is that the channel is stable, not shrinking, but that September did not deliver the seasonal lift many fashion sellers had stocked for. The Debenhams Group, which runs a marketplace model across its brands, illustrates the pressure: it reported revenue down 3% even as its return to profit for the first time since 2021 was driven by marketplace sales and lower costs.
Which shops were hit hardest in September?
The fall was broad. The Guardian reported that sales dropped across almost all sectors of the industry, with automotive fuel and department stores the only exceptions. Department store volumes rose 0.2%, a small gain that may reflect shoppers browsing several categories under one roof when footfall elsewhere was weak.
| Retail sector | Volume change, Sept vs Aug 2026 | Main reason cited |
|---|---|---|
| Non-store (mostly online) | -2.2% | Warm weather hit autumn and winter clothing ranges; strong August |
| Textile, clothing and footwear stores | -0.9% | Lower footfall, warm weather, customers cutting back |
| Household goods stores | -0.5% | Weakness concentrated in hardware retailers |
| Supermarkets | -0.4% | Slipped back after a warm-weather and World Cup summer |
| Department stores | +0.2% | Only rise apart from fuel |
| Automotive fuel | +2.2% | Volumes back to levels last seen before the Middle East conflict |
Sources: Guardian reporting of ONS data; reasons from the ONS bulletin’s retailer feedback.
Supermarkets slip after a strong summer
Food stores had been a bright spot. The ONS said supermarket volumes rose in July and August, helped by hot weather and the World Cup, before falling in September to slightly below their June level. Alcohol and drinks specialists reported high volumes from June through September. Talking Retail quoted Laurence Field, a partner at the accountancy firm Crowe, who called the figures a “timely warning for the chancellor ahead of next week’s budget” and said September’s fall “shows just how fragile consumer confidence remains”.
Supermarket figures matter for online shoppers too, because grocery is one of the fastest-growing parts of UK e-commerce. Sainsbury’s said on 22 October that its online grocery sales rose 9% in the six months to 12 September. Rivals are competing hard on delivery: Tesco, for example, made its Whoosh rapid delivery free until January for qualifying baskets.
Why did fuel sales rise while everything else fell?
Automotive fuel was the outlier. The Guardian reported that the volume of fuel sold rose 2.2% in September despite pump prices close to record highs, returning to monthly levels last seen before the conflict in the Middle East began. In value terms, fuel sales rose 6.1%, the biggest monthly increase since a 10.9% jump in March, the month after the US-Iran conflict started.
Hannah Finselbach, a senior statistician at the ONS, said: “Retail sales grew in the latest quarter with growth led by motor fuel, which, despite recent price increases at the pump, have now returned to monthly sales levels last seen before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.” She added that food and drink sales “also contributed to growth in the quarter, partly helped by the warm weather and the World Cup, although they fell back slightly in September”.
For household budgets, the fuel recovery is not good news. More money going into the tank, at higher prices, leaves less for clothes, homeware and gifts. The ONS bulletin’s retailer feedback mentions motorists making fewer journeys and delaying filling up as prices rose; the rebound in September volumes suggests drivers can only defer those purchases for so long.
What does the GfK consumer confidence crash mean for shoppers?
The retail figures landed a few hours after GfK published its October consumer confidence index. According to the Guardian, the headline index fell 11 points to -24. GfK said confidence last fell this far in a single month in July 2016, after the EU referendum result. The index’s largest ever fall, 25 points, came in March 2020 at the start of the first lockdown.
Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, said: “Relentless cost-of-living pressures, against an international backdrop of unresolved regional conflicts that are themselves contributing to domestic inflation now at 3.5%, appear to have swept aside the nascent optimism we saw following the appointment of a new UK prime minister this summer.” In July, GfK had described a “Burnham bounce”, alongside England’s World Cup run and sunny weather, lifting the national mood.
The major purchase index is the number retailers will watch
The sub-measure that matters most for retailers is the major purchase index, which asks whether now is a good time to buy big-ticket items such as furniture, electricals and appliances. The Guardian reported that it fell 14 points to -22 in October. Consumers also became less confident about both their personal finances and the wider economy.
The reversal is stark. Only six weeks ago, a separate PwC survey pointed in the opposite direction, as we reported when UK consumer confidence hit a five-year high in September and PwC urged retailers to start their Christmas push early. Since then, inflation has risen, fuel prices have climbed and energy bills have increased ahead of winter. Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said that “October’s sharp fall in consumer confidence and the dip in retail sales volumes in September show that times are getting tougher for households just as the all-important festive period for retailers is just around the corner.”
How does September compare with retailers’ own trading updates?
The official data broadly matches what listed retailers have been saying this week. The pattern is consistent: essentials and value lines hold up, while fashion and big-ticket non-food struggle. The following summarises recent statements from British retailers with large online operations.
Sainsbury’s and Argos: shoppers keep a tight rein
Sainsbury’s warned on 22 October of a “pretty challenging” market in the run-up to Christmas, the Guardian reported. Sales growth slowed to 2.6% in the six months to 12 September, with second-quarter growth of 1.9% against 3% in the first quarter. Chief executive Simon Roberts said shoppers were limiting the number of items they bought and cutting back on clothing and big-ticket items such as furniture at Argos, where sales fell 1.8%. General merchandise and clothing sales at the group fell 3.4% in the half.
Not everything was weak. Online grocery sales rose 9% and the premium Taste the Difference range grew 6%, suggesting that shoppers are trading treats within the grocery basket rather than spending on non-food. Sainsbury’s raised its underlying profit guidance to at least £1.02bn.
The Very Group: homeware up, fashion down
The Very Group, one of Britain’s largest online-only retailers and owner of Littlewoods, published full-year results on 23 October for the year to 27 June. Drapers reported that group revenue was broadly flat at £2.09bn and Very UK revenue rose 1.3% to £1.86bn. Fashion and sports sales fell 4.6%, while home rose 6.4% and toys and beauty grew 3.2%. Very Finance, which provides its buy now, pay later and credit account products, grew revenue 7.1% to £464.5m.
The split mirrors the ONS figures closely: clothing is the category UK online shoppers are cutting first. The Very Group ended the year with 4.1 million active customers.
| Retailer (period) | Headline sales trend | Weakest area | Strongest area |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sainsbury’s (six months to 12 Sept 2026) | Sales growth 2.6%; Q2 1.9% | Argos -1.8%; general merchandise and clothing -3.4% | Online grocery +9%; Taste the Difference +6% |
| The Very Group (year to 27 June 2026) | Revenue flat at £2.09bn; Very UK +1.3% | Fashion and sports -4.6% | Home +6.4%; Very Finance +7.1% |
| Debenhams Group (six months to 31 Aug 2026) | Revenue -3% to £409.6m | Revenue fell even as GMV rose 1.8% | Marketplace, 38.9% of GMV |
| ONS, all GB retail (September 2026) | Volume -0.4% month on month | Non-store -2.2%; clothing stores -0.9% | Fuel +2.2%; department stores +0.2% |
Sources: company statements as reported by the Guardian and Drapers; ONS.
What does this mean for Black Friday 2026?
Black Friday falls on Friday 27 November this year, five weeks after these figures. The early signals point to a quieter event than retailers would like. According to InternetRetailing, Shopify’s Holiday Retail 2026 report found that UK consumers plan to spend around £165 over the Black Friday weekend, down from £181 in 2025, a fall of roughly 9%. Shopify also found that 53% of UK consumers said they had felt negative economic impacts over the past year.
Stephen Rogan, head of customer success for EMEA at Shopify, told InternetRetailing that “every pound consumers will be spending this holiday season will be a highly deliberate decision”. Hai-Ly Nguyen, an associate partner at McKinsey & Company, noted that “the run-up to Christmas decides the year’s profits for many non-food retailers like fashion and consumer electronics”, which are exactly the categories that fell in September.
Expect earlier and deeper discounts
InternetRetailing reported that experts expect discounts to start earlier or go deeper as retailers fight for a smaller pool of spending. That is likely to be most visible in fashion, where the warm September has left many retailers carrying autumn and winter stock they had expected to sell at full price. Unsold coats and knitwear in October tend to become markdowns in November.
For shoppers, this is a reason to compare prices carefully rather than buy the first “Black Friday” offer that appears. Under the Digital Markets, Competition and Consumers Act 2024, the Competition and Markets Authority can now fine retailers directly for misleading pricing practices, including fake reference prices and hidden fees. Checking a product’s price history before the event remains the simplest way to tell a real reduction from a relabelled one.
What shoppers value this year
Shopify’s research suggests UK consumers are redefining value rather than simply hunting the lowest price. According to InternetRetailing, 54% of UK consumers said good value means higher-than-expected quality for the price, and 38% said it means products lasting longer than expected. That favours retailers that can show durability, clear returns terms and honest product descriptions over those competing purely on headline discounts.
How will the Budget on 28 October affect retail and online shopping?
John Healey will deliver his first Budget on Wednesday 28 October, five days after these figures. According to the Guardian, he has pledged “breathing space” measures to ease pressure on households but has warned that resources are limited, with government borrowing costs at their highest level in decades. Official figures this week showed a worse-than-forecast government deficit of £24.5bn alongside inflation of 3.5%.
Retailers have been lobbying hard. Simon Roberts of Sainsbury’s said it was “important this government does not repeat what we have seen in previous budgets” in raising business rates and employers’ national insurance contributions. For online shopping specifically, the most significant expected measure is a change to how VAT is collected on marketplaces: as we reported this morning, Healey is expected to make Amazon and eBay collect sellers’ VAT for UK business sellers, with the proceeds reportedly linked to business rates relief for physical shops.
Why weak retail data matters to the Chancellor
Retail sales are one of the earliest official readings of household spending, which makes up the largest part of the UK economy. Paul Dales of Capital Economics said the latest figures support his firm’s view that real consumer spending and real GDP “will grind to a halt” in the final quarter of this year and the first quarter of next. Weak spending reduces VAT receipts, which limits how much room the Chancellor has to offer tax cuts or support.
For independent shops and high street retailers, the Budget’s treatment of business rates is the key variable. Retail trade bodies have set out their requests in detail, including the British Independent Retailers Association, which pressed Healey on business rates with six asks for this Budget.
What should UK shoppers and online sellers do now?
The September figures are one month of data, and the ONS revises its estimates regularly; August was revised up by 0.2 percentage points this time. But the combination of falling sales, collapsing confidence and rising prices gives a clear direction for the next eight weeks.
For shoppers
- Track prices from now: if a retailer is carrying unsold winter stock, prices may fall before Black Friday rather than on the day.
- Check returns terms: several large online retailers now charge for returns; read the policy before buying items you may send back.
- Be careful with buy now, pay later: deferred payments taken in November fall due in January, when energy bills are typically highest.
- Use your consumer rights: goods bought online can normally be cancelled within 14 days of delivery under the Consumer Contracts Regulations, separate from any retailer’s own returns policy.
For marketplace sellers and small online retailers
- Clear seasonal stock early: fashion sellers who bought heavily for autumn face competition from larger retailers discounting the same categories.
- Plan for lower basket values: Shopify’s figures point to smaller Black Friday budgets, so bundles and free delivery thresholds may need adjusting.
- Watch the Budget detail: any change to marketplace VAT collection will affect cash flow and pricing for VAT-registered sellers.
- Look beyond the UK: PayPal UK’s Sean Douglas told InternetRetailing that “domestic demand is only part of the picture”, citing more than £6.6bn spent with UK businesses by shoppers in over 100 countries via PayPal over the past year.
When are the next retail sales figures published?
The ONS will publish retail sales for October 2026 on Friday 20 November, a week before Black Friday. That release will show whether colder weather in October helped clothing retailers recover the sales they lost in September, and whether the confidence slump has fed through into actual spending. The British Retail Consortium’s monthly sales monitor and Barclays’ card spending data, both published earlier in the month, usually give an earlier read.
Christmas trading statements from the major chains follow in early January. Retailers have already adjusted their seasonal plans to a cautious market: John Lewis, for example, cut its Christmas hiring to 10,400 this year. If November’s figures confirm September’s weakness, more retailers are likely to bring promotions forward, which is good news for shoppers’ wallets but a further squeeze on retailers’ margins.
Frequently asked questions
Did UK retail sales fall in September 2026?
Yes. The ONS said retail sales volumes in Great Britain fell 0.4% between August and September 2026, worse than the 0.1% fall economists expected. Excluding fuel, volumes fell 0.7%. Sales were still 0.8% higher than in September 2025.
How much did online sales fall in September?
Non-store retailing, which is mostly online, fell 2.2% by volume, the biggest fall in the sector. In cash terms, online spending fell 0.4% on the month but was 6.8% higher than a year earlier, according to the ONS.
What percentage of UK retail sales are online?
Online accounted for 28.8% of all retail spending in Great Britain in September 2026, down slightly from 28.9% in August, according to the ONS. That is more than £1 in every £4 spent at retail.
Why did retail sales fall in September 2026?
Retailers told the ONS that unseasonably warm weather hurt sales of autumn and winter clothing, especially online. Clothing and sports stores also reported lower footfall and customers cutting back. Rising fuel prices and inflation of 3.5% are squeezing household budgets.
What is the GfK consumer confidence index for October 2026?
GfK’s index fell 11 points to -24 in October 2026, its largest one-month fall outside the Covid pandemic since July 2016. The major purchase index, which tracks appetite for big-ticket items, fell 14 points to -22.
Will Black Friday 2026 deals be bigger this year?
Possibly. Industry experts quoted by InternetRetailing expect discounts to start earlier or go deeper as retailers compete for less spending. Fashion retailers holding unsold winter stock after a warm September have the strongest reason to cut prices.
How much will UK shoppers spend on Black Friday 2026?
Shopify’s Holiday Retail 2026 report found UK consumers plan to spend around £165 over the Black Friday weekend, down from £181 in 2025. Black Friday falls on 27 November 2026.
When is the next ONS retail sales release?
The ONS will publish retail sales figures for October 2026 on Friday 20 November 2026, one week before Black Friday.