Five Below Q2 lands September 2: guidance rests on a lapsed tariff bet

Five Below, Inc. (NASDAQ: FIVE) will report second quarter fiscal 2026 results after the market closes on Wednesday, September 2, 2026, with a conference call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time. The company confirmed the date in an August 19 release. The print matters for a reason that has little to do with the quarter itself: the guidance Five Below is about to be measured against was built on a tariff assumption that stopped being true on July 24.

In short

  • Date and time: Five Below reports Q2 fiscal 2026 after close on Wednesday, September 2, 2026, with the call at 4:30 p.m. ET, per the company’s August 19 announcement.
  • The guide: net sales of $1.18 billion to $1.20 billion, comparable sales up 7% to 9%, and GAAP diluted EPS of $1.15 to $1.27 on roughly 55.7 million diluted shares.
  • The assumption: that outlook “includes the expected impact of tariff rates currently in place through July 24, 2026, and assumes tariffs thereafter revert to rates in place at the start of the fiscal year.” Tariffs did not revert.
  • The excluded upside: the same outlook explicitly excludes tariff refunds. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Walmart and Burlington have all already booked refund benefits in their own quarters.
  • The bar: consensus sits at roughly $1.32 in adjusted EPS on $1.21 billion of revenue, above the top end of the company’s own adjusted range of $1.17 to $1.29.

What Five Below is actually reporting on September 2

The second quarter of Five Below’s fiscal 2026 covers the thirteen weeks ending on or about August 1, 2026. It is the quarter that contains the back to school season, the summer clearance cycle, and the first full period of Halloween set placement in the company’s larger store formats.

Five Below guided the quarter on June 3, alongside first quarter results. Net sales were put at $1.18 billion to $1.20 billion, based on opening approximately 50 net new stores and assuming a 7% to 9% increase in comparable sales. Net income was guided to $64 million to $71 million, with adjusted net income of $65 million to $72 million.

On a per share basis the company guided GAAP diluted income of $1.15 to $1.27, and adjusted diluted income of $1.17 to $1.29, on approximately 55.7 million diluted weighted average shares. The adjustment is small and mechanical: it strips out the continuing expense recognition of retention awards granted in fiscal 2024 during the CEO transition, which vest through fiscal 2026.

The store math behind the sales line

Five Below ended the first quarter with 1,970 stores across 46 states, having opened 49 net new stores in the period. That was an increase of 7.9% in store count against the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2025. Roughly 50 more openings in the second quarter puts the base near 2,020 by the end of the period, against 1,858 a year earlier.

That is a store count increase of about 8.7% year over year. It matters because it separates the two halves of the sales line. With comparable sales guided at 7% to 9% and unit growth near 8.7%, the reported sales increase should sit well above either component on its own, since new stores that have not yet entered the comp base still contribute revenue.

The midpoint of the sales guide, $1.19 billion, would be an increase of roughly 15.9% against the $1,026.8 million Five Below reported in the second quarter of fiscal 2025. Consensus is a touch higher at about $1.21 billion, or 17.9% growth.

Why the July 24 tariff assumption is the whole story

Guidance language is usually boilerplate. In this case it is the load-bearing wall. The June 3 outlook carried an unusually specific carve-out, and the market read it immediately.

The exact wording: “This outlook includes the expected impact of tariff rates currently in place through July 24, 2026, and assumes tariffs thereafter revert to rates in place at the start of the fiscal year. This outlook excludes the impact of tariff refunds and share repurchases, if any.”

Two separate assumptions are bundled there. The first is that the elevated tariff structure in place in the spring would roll back after July 24 to the rates that applied when fiscal 2026 opened. The second is that any refunds of previously paid duties are simply not in the numbers.

What the market did with that language in June

Five Below beat its own first quarter substantially. Adjusted diluted EPS came in at $2.22 against a consensus near $1.69. Net sales rose 32.5% to $1,285.6 million and comparable sales rose 22.7%. The company raised its full year sales and EPS outlook on the back of it.

The stock fell about 11% at the open the following morning. The reported explanation was not the quarter. It was the reversion assumption embedded in the raised full year guide, which made the second half look conditional on a policy outcome outside the company’s control.

What happened after July 24 instead

Tariffs did not revert. According to trade compliance trackers and Federal Register notices, the period since late July has been one of escalation and administrative tightening rather than rollback. The relevant sequence for a general merchandise importer runs roughly as follows.

The de minimis exemption for merchandise arriving through the international postal network was indefinitely suspended, with the interim final rule effective July 24, 2026. Section 232 duties on patented pharmaceutical imports took effect on July 31 under a tiered rate structure. On August 18, 407 additional HTSUS codes were brought into scope as steel and aluminum derivative products, with the duty applying to the metal content of the derivative article.

On August 22, Section 338 tariffs of 50% on Canadian goods took effect after a short delay from the original August 19 date, and Ottawa responded with matching tariffs of 15%, 25% or 50% on a set of US goods covering about 6% of US exports to Canada. Separately, the US Trade Representative has been preparing an excess capacity action that would lift a 7.5% China rate toward a 20% cap, a step covered in our reporting on the USTR China overcapacity tariff and the 20% ceiling.

None of that resembles a reversion to start of year rates. Five Below’s second half guide, as constructed in June, therefore rests on a premise that has not held.

What changed since the guide was set

Date Action Authority Relevance to general merchandise importers
July 24, 2026 De minimis suspended for international postal network Interim final rule Removes duty-free treatment on low-value mail shipments
July 31, 2026 Section 232 pharmaceutical duties take effect Section 232 Direct hit to retail pharmacy, not to variety retail
August 18, 2026 407 HTSUS codes added as steel and aluminum derivatives Section 232 Metal content duty reaches many hardlines and housewares codes
August 22, 2026 50% tariffs on Canadian goods take effect Section 338 Limited direct exposure for a US-only store base
September 1, 2026 Customs enforcement tranche, penalty mitigation floor Executive Order 14411 Raises the cost of classification and valuation errors
September 18, 2026 CBP begins voiding inaccurate importer of record numbers CBP Form 5106 notice Operational risk of port holds for filers with stale data
September 22, 2026 Entry Type 13 postal informal entry test begins CBP test program New electronic entry path for mail shipments to $2,500

The table is not a list of Five Below specific liabilities. It is the environment in which the company’s reversion assumption was supposed to unwind, and it moved in the opposite direction throughout the quarter and into the guidance period that follows it.

Where the tariff refund could land

The more interesting half of the carve-out is the exclusion of refunds. Following the invalidation of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, US Customs and Border Protection has been processing refund claims at scale. Trade compliance trackers report that more than $132 billion in potential and certified refunds have been accepted for processing through the CAPE mechanism, from 272,029 declarations submitted, of which 191,494 passed file validation.

That money has been landing in retail income statements all summer. Because Five Below explicitly excluded refunds from its June guide, any recognized refund benefit in the second quarter arrives as unguided upside rather than as something already in the bar.

How peers have booked the same item

Dollar General reported second quarter results on August 27 with gross margin expansion of 127 basis points, of which 81 basis points came from tariff refunds net of reinvestment. The company said it received the majority of its anticipated total refund in the quarter and does not expect a material impact after reinvestment in the second half. Its full year guidance now embeds roughly $0.25 per share of refund benefit after reinvestment. We covered the setup in advance in our preview of Dollar General’s Q2 and the refund that sat outside its guidance.

Chief Executive Todd Vasos framed the quarter as a beat on the merits, saying results “exceeded our expectations even before considering the benefit from tariff refunds after related reinvestments.” That framing is now the template: management teams want the refund treated as a separate line rather than as evidence of underlying momentum.

Walmart put a $2.9 billion refund into roughly 11,000 price rollbacks. Burlington reinvested a $55 million refund into price cuts and guided the following quarter below expectations. Gap reserved about $80 million of net tariff relief. Dillard’s booked a $37.2 million refund that lifted quarterly profit by 34%.

Why the reinvestment choice matters more than the amount

The refunds are one-time. The pricing decisions they fund are not. A retailer that pushes the entire benefit into shelf price buys traffic and share but resets the margin base, which is why several of these names beat on the quarter and then guided the next one down.

Five Below’s position is unusual within that cohort. Its Q1 gross margin was already 37.2%, up from 33.4% a year earlier, an expansion of roughly 386 basis points achieved before any refund contribution. A company expanding margin that fast has less need to spend a windfall defending price than one whose comp is barely positive.

Retailer Q2 net sales Comparable sales Tariff refund treatment Next-quarter posture
Dollar General $11.3bn, up 5.2% +3.5% (traffic +2.0%) 81bps of gross margin, net of reinvestment Full year sales growth raised to 4.0%-4.3%
Dollar Tree $4.9bn, up 7% +3.7% (ticket +3.3%) Benefit included, amount not disclosed Q3 sales $5.0bn-$5.1bn, comps +3%-4%
Burlington Reported August 27 Positive $55m fully reinvested in price Q3 guide below expectations
Walmart Reported August 21 Slowest in six years $2.9bn into 11,000 rollbacks Price-led share defense
Five Below (guide) $1.18bn-$1.20bn +7% to +9% Explicitly excluded from outlook To be set September 2

How the discount cohort read the consumer this quarter

The read-through from the August prints is consistent. Value formats gained while conventional grocers and mid-tier apparel struggled. Dollar General’s comp was driven by traffic rather than ticket, up 2.0% against a 1.5% increase in average transaction amount, which is the signature of trade-down rather than inflation.

Dollar Tree’s mix ran the other way, with ticket up 3.3% and traffic up only 0.4%, reflecting the continued build-out of multi-price assortments. Both raised or maintained full year outlooks. Our coverage of Dollar Tree’s Q2 and its tariff test set out the multi-price mechanics in more detail.

Consumer confidence data released the same week showed a dimming view of jobs, incomes and business conditions. That combination, weakening sentiment alongside strengthening value-format traffic, is exactly the environment in which Five Below has historically comped best.

What separates Five Below from the dollar stores

Five Below is not a consumables retailer. Most items sit between $1 and $5, with some extreme value items above $5, across merchandising worlds the company labels Candy, Style, Party, Room, Create, Tech, Sports and New & Now. The basket is discretionary, trend-driven and heavily import-dependent.

That makes the tariff sensitivity structurally different. A dollar store absorbs duty on a stable, repeat-purchase assortment where price points are defended by frequency. Five Below absorbs duty on a rotating assortment where the price point itself is the proposition, and where a duty that cannot be engineered out of the cost forces either a margin concession or a delisting.

Management has been explicit that the exposure exists. The company’s own risk disclosure cites reliance on merchandise manufactured outside the United States, including “direct and indirect impact of current and potential tariffs imposed, threatened, or proposed by the United States on foreign imports,” along with any counter-measures.

The comp deceleration nobody should misread

The most arresting number in the second quarter guide is the comparable sales range of 7% to 9%, against 22.7% delivered in the first quarter. On the surface that looks like a collapse in momentum. It is mostly arithmetic.

The first quarter of fiscal 2026 lapped a first quarter of fiscal 2025 in which comparable sales were weak and the business was mid-turnaround. The second quarter laps a period in which comparable sales already rose 12.4% and net sales rose 23.7%. The base is materially harder.

The two-year stack tells a steadier story

Stacking the two years smooths the distortion. A 7% to 9% comp on top of last year’s 12.4% produces a two-year stack in the high teens to low twenties. The first quarter’s 22.7% stacked on a soft prior-year base produces something similar. On that basis the guide implies stability rather than deceleration.

Period Net sales Comparable sales GAAP diluted EPS Stores at period end
Q2 FY2025 (actual) $1,026.8m, up 23.7% +12.4% $0.77 ($0.81 adjusted) 1,858
Q4 FY2025 (actual) $1.73bn, up 24.3% +15.4% $4.28 ($4.31 adjusted) 1,921
FY2025 (actual) $4.76bn, up 22.9% +12.8% $6.47 ($6.67 adjusted) 1,921
Q1 FY2026 (actual) $1,285.6m, up 32.5% +22.7% $2.21 ($2.22 adjusted) 1,970
Q2 FY2026 (guide) $1.18bn-$1.20bn +7% to +9% $1.15-$1.27 ($1.17-$1.29 adjusted) approx 2,020
FY2026 (guide) $5.40bn-$5.48bn +6% to +8% $8.62-$9.02 ($8.65-$9.05 adjusted) approx 2,071

What the full year guide implies for the second half

Working backwards is instructive. The midpoint of the full year sales guide is roughly $5.44 billion. Subtracting reported first quarter sales of $1,285.6 million and the second quarter midpoint of $1.19 billion leaves about $2.96 billion for the back half, against roughly $2.76 billion in the same period of fiscal 2025.

That is implied second half growth near 7%, on a store base up roughly 8%. In other words, the full year guide as it stands assumes comparable sales in the back half decelerate toward flat, on top of a fourth quarter that comped 15.4% last year. The guide is not aggressive. It is conditional on the tariff reversion that did not happen, which is a different problem.

What the balance sheet says about holiday readiness

Five Below entered the second quarter carrying $638.9 million of cash and cash equivalents plus $474.4 million of short-term investment securities, with nothing drawn on its line of credit. Total liquidity above $1.1 billion is unusually comfortable for a retailer of this size heading into a peak inventory build.

Inventories stood at $813.3 million at May 2, 2026, up 15.8% against $702.1 million a year earlier. Set against first quarter sales growth of 32.5%, that is a clean position: the company sold through faster than it restocked, which is the opposite of the pattern that produces fourth quarter markdowns.

Operating cash flow of $227.2 million in the quarter, against $132.7 million a year earlier, funded capital expenditure of $37.2 million with substantial room to spare. Full year gross capital expenditure is guided at $230 million to $250 million, consistent with roughly 150 net new stores.

Why liquidity is a tariff variable, not just a balance sheet item

Duty is paid at entry, before the goods are sold. A retailer with thin liquidity facing a step-up in effective duty rates has to choose between financing the working capital or cutting order quantities. A retailer with $1.1 billion of unencumbered liquidity does not.

That is the practical difference between an importer that can hold its Halloween and holiday buy through a tariff shock and one that trims it. It also explains why the refund question, though real, is less existential here than it has been for thinner-capitalized off-price names. The broader legal backdrop is set out in our coverage of the trade court’s handling of the IEEPA refund class.

What the Street is expecting, and where it disagrees with the company

Consensus for the second quarter sits at approximately $1.32 in adjusted EPS on revenue of about $1.21 billion, with comparable sales of roughly 8.7% and a period-end store count near 2,020. The estimate has been stable, with no meaningful revision in the thirty days before the print.

The consensus EPS figure sits above the top of the company’s own adjusted range of $1.17 to $1.29. That is a normal pattern for a management team that guides conservatively and has beaten in consecutive quarters, but it does mean the quarter has to clear a bar the company itself did not set.

The more revealing disagreement is at the full year level. One compilation of analyst estimates puts full year adjusted EPS at $8.29, below the company’s raised range of $8.65 to $9.05. If that figure is representative, the Street is not underwriting the second half of the company’s own guide, which is consistent with treating the tariff reversion assumption as unlikely to hold.

What to watch on the 4:30 p.m. call

Four items will determine how the print is received, and only one of them is the headline number.

First, the refund. Whether Five Below recognized an IEEPA refund benefit in the second quarter, how large it was, and whether any of it was reinvested in price. The guide excluded it, so any amount is incremental to the reported bar.

Second, the reconstructed tariff assumption. The third quarter and full year guide has to be rebuilt on a live tariff structure rather than a reversion. A guide that simply carries current rates forward is a materially different document from the one issued in June, and the difference between those two constructions is the cleanest measure of the cost the company is absorbing.

Third, the price architecture. Five Below’s proposition is a price ceiling, not a discount percentage. Any commentary on the mix between the core $1 to $5 band and the extreme value tier above $5 is a direct signal on how duty is being absorbed. Burlington’s decision to route its entire refund into shelf price, described in our coverage of the $55 million refund and the Q3 guide that missed, shows what the alternative looks like.

Fourth, the holiday buy. With Halloween sets already placed and the fourth quarter lapping a 15.4% comp, any commentary on order timing, vendor negotiation or country-of-origin shifts will be read as the company’s own view of where duty rates settle.

The two conference appearances that follow

Management has committed to two investor events shortly after the print. Chief Financial Officer Dan Sullivan participates in a fireside chat at the Barclays 19th Annual Global Consumer Conference on Wednesday, September 9 at 10:30 a.m. ET. Chief Executive Winnie Park and Sullivan appear together at the Goldman Sachs Global Consumer and Retail Conference on Tuesday, September 15 at 9:15 a.m. ET.

Both are webcast. In a quarter where the guidance construction matters more than the guidance level, the follow-up commentary at those events is likely to move the stock as much as the release itself. Materials and replays are posted on the company’s investor relations site.

What the print means for the wider value channel

Five Below is the last significant value-format reporter of the August-September cycle, which makes it the closing data point on a coherent set of questions. The dollar stores have already shown that trade-down traffic is real and that refunds flattered the quarter. Walmart has shown that the largest players will spend the windfall on price.

What is still untested is whether a discretionary, import-heavy, price-ceiling format can hold margin through a tariff structure that did not roll back. Five Below expanded gross margin by roughly 386 basis points in the first quarter without refund help. If it holds most of that in the second quarter, the argument that duty is being engineered out through sourcing and vendor terms gets much stronger.

If margin compresses materially and the second half guide comes down when rebuilt on live rates, the read-through runs the other way, and it reaches every specialty importer that has been assuming relief rather than pricing for its absence.

The bear case and the bull case, stated plainly

The bear case is that the June guide was constructed on a policy assumption that failed, that the second half has to be rebased, and that a rebase lands during the quarter with the hardest comparison and the largest inventory commitment. A company guiding a 15.4% fourth quarter comp lap on live tariff rates has less room than one guiding on reverted rates.

The bull case is that the same guide excluded a refund that peers have shown to be substantial, that the balance sheet carries more than $1.1 billion of liquidity into the build, that inventory is running well below sales growth, and that first quarter margin expansion of nearly 400 basis points was achieved with no policy help at all.

Both cases are settled by the same disclosure on September 2. The reported quarter will probably beat, given the pattern of the last two prints and a consensus that sits above the company’s range. The guide is where the information is.

Frequently asked questions

When exactly does Five Below report Q2 fiscal 2026 results?

After the market closes on Wednesday, September 2, 2026, with a conference call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time. The company confirmed the date and time in a release issued on August 19, 2026. A live audio webcast and subsequent replay are available through the company’s investor relations site.

What is Five Below’s guidance for the quarter?

Net sales of $1.18 billion to $1.20 billion, based on opening approximately 50 net new stores and assuming a 7% to 9% increase in comparable sales. Net income of $64 million to $71 million, or $65 million to $72 million adjusted. GAAP diluted EPS of $1.15 to $1.27, or $1.17 to $1.29 adjusted, on approximately 55.7 million diluted weighted average shares.

Why is the July 24 date significant?

Five Below’s outlook, issued June 3, includes the expected impact of tariff rates in place through July 24, 2026, and assumes tariffs revert thereafter to the rates that applied at the start of the fiscal year. Tariff rates did not revert. Since late July the structure has tightened further, so the assumption underlying the second half of the guide no longer matches conditions.

Did Five Below include tariff refunds in its guidance?

No. The June outlook states explicitly that it excludes the impact of tariff refunds and share repurchases. Any refund recognized in the second quarter therefore sits outside the guided range and arrives as unguided upside relative to the bar the company set.

How have other retailers treated the IEEPA tariff refunds?

Dollar General reported 81 basis points of gross margin benefit net of reinvestment and roughly $0.25 per share embedded in its full year guide. Walmart directed a $2.9 billion refund into about 11,000 price rollbacks. Burlington reinvested $55 million entirely in price and then guided its next quarter below expectations. Dillard’s booked $37.2 million, lifting quarterly profit 34%.

What does Wall Street expect Five Below to report?

Consensus is approximately $1.32 in adjusted EPS on revenue of about $1.21 billion, with comparable sales near 8.7% and a period-end store count around 2,020. The EPS figure is above the top of the company’s own adjusted guidance range, and estimates were unchanged over the thirty days preceding the report.

Why does the comparable sales guide drop from 22.7% to 7% to 9%?

Mainly because of the comparison base. The first quarter of fiscal 2026 lapped a weak first quarter of fiscal 2025. The second quarter laps a period in which comparable sales already rose 12.4% and net sales rose 23.7%. On a two-year stacked basis the guided range implies stability rather than a genuine slowdown.

How exposed is Five Below to import duties?

The company does not disclose a country-level sourcing breakdown. Its own risk disclosures cite reliance on merchandise manufactured outside the United States and the direct and indirect impact of current and potential tariffs, along with counter-measures. The exposure is structurally significant because the format’s proposition is a price ceiling, mostly $1 to $5, which leaves limited room to pass duty through.

What should investors watch beyond the headline numbers?

The size and treatment of any tariff refund, how the third quarter and full year guide is reconstructed on live tariff rates rather than the reversion assumption, gross margin against the 37.2% posted in the first quarter, and any commentary on the holiday buy given that the fourth quarter laps a 15.4% comparable sales increase.