The three listed US off-price chains are likely to add at least 400 net new stores in calendar 2027, which would be a record for TJX, Ross Stores and Burlington combined. The signals point to all three guiding 2027 openings at or above their 2026 plans when they report fourth-quarter results between late February and early March 2027. Three earnings tells from the August 19 to 27 reporting window support that call: TJX raised its long-term store target and told investors it plans to accelerate openings to about 4% a year “starting next year”, Ross lifted its 2026 opening plan for the second time in a row, and Burlington paired a 115-store year with roughly $875 million of capex. The pattern suggests the off-price real estate race is getting faster, not slower, even as US comps at TJ Maxx and Marshalls cooled to 1%.
In short
- Prediction: TJX, Ross and Burlington combined add at least 400 net new stores in calendar 2027 (TJX fiscal 2028, Ross and Burlington fiscal 2027), up from roughly 380 planned for 2026, and each guides 2027 openings at or above its 2026 plan.
- Timeframe: The guidance lands at the Q4 calls in late February to early March 2027; near-term checkpoints are the Q3 calls in mid to late November 2026, where the 2026 plans (Ross 115, Burlington 115, TJX about 3%) are expected to hold.
- Signal 1: TJX (August 19) raised its long-term global store target from 7,000 to 7,500 and said openings accelerate to about 4% beginning fiscal 2028, per the company’s release and call.
- Signal 2: Ross (August 20) posted a 10% comp on traffic and raised its 2026 opening plan to 115 stores, after moving it from about 90 to about 110 in May.
- Signal 3: Burlington (August 27) guided about 115 net new stores and roughly $875 million of capex for fiscal 2026, and chose to reinvest its $55 million tariff refund in price rather than in earnings.
Why this matters now
Store growth is the single most durable input into off-price earnings power, and it is decided months before it becomes visible. Leases for boxes opening in the second half of 2027 are being negotiated now; the store-plan numbers management disclose in February and March are, in practice, already largely committed by the time of the November calls. Reading the August language is therefore the earliest reliable window into the 2027 footprint.
The stakes are also unusually clear this cycle. Off-price has been the share winner in US apparel and home for most of the past decade, and the sector has just been handed a second tailwind in the form of tariff refunds that the leaders are choosing to spend on price. As we argued in our analysis of why off-price keeps winning in a soft economy, the model compounds when full-price retail wobbles, because both the supply of excess inventory and the demand for value rise at the same time.
What has changed since spring is the tone on real estate. In May the sector was talking about share gains and inventory availability; by late August all three chains were talking about boxes, openings, and long-term store potential. That shift in the forward-looking language is the anchor for this piece.
Signal 1: TJX raises the ceiling and names a date
On August 19, TJX reported second-quarter fiscal 2027 net sales of $15.2 billion, up 5%, with consolidated comps up 4% and adjusted EPS of $1.22, up 11%. The headline that moved the stock, though, was the store plan. Chief executive Ernie Herrman said the company now believes it can grow its global base to 7,500 stores, up from the 7,000 target it had been using, and that it is “planning to accelerate our store openings to 4% starting next year”, according to the earnings release and the call transcript.
The 500-store increase is specific rather than aspirational: about 300 additional TJ Maxx and Marshalls locations and about 200 additional HomeGoods stores, all inside banners and countries where TJX already operates. On a base of 5,285 stores at the end of the quarter, a 4% pace implies roughly 210 to 220 net openings in fiscal 2028, which runs from February 2027 to January 2028, versus the roughly 3% pace (about 150 to 160 stores) the company has been running this year. Management pointed to rural markets where department stores are closing and to smaller formats for dense urban areas as the two sources of new sites.
Two details make this a stronger signal than a routine target raise. First, the market did not reward it: shares fell on the day despite an earnings beat, as reported by Bloomberg, which suggests management chose to commit to the faster pace knowing it would cost near-term multiple. Second, the acceleration was announced alongside a soft 1% comp at Marmaxx, the US TJ Maxx and Marshalls division, with a small decrease in transactions. A company adding stores into a slowing US comp is telling investors it believes the growth is structural and real-estate-led, not demand-led.
Our preview of the TJX quarter flagged the Canada tariff exposure; the store plan turned out to be the bigger story.
Signal 2: Ross lifts its 2026 plan for the second time in a row
Ross Stores reported on August 20 that second-quarter sales rose 13% to $6.3 billion with comparable store sales up 10%, driven primarily by customer traffic, following a 17% comp in the first quarter. Operating margin expanded 610 basis points, or 205 basis points excluding a roughly $253 million IEEPA tariff refund. EPS of $2.66 included about $0.60 from the refund and landed well above the $1.85 to $1.93 guidance range.
The forward-looking tell is the store plan’s trajectory, not just its level. Ross entered the year planning about 90 openings, raised that to about 110 in May, and raised it again in August to 115, split roughly 90 Ross Dress for Less and 25 dd’s DISCOUNTS. The company opened 47 stores in the second quarter alone (35 Ross, 12 dd’s) and ended the period with 2,328 locations.
The dd’s DISCOUNTS component matters on its own: at 25 stores it is the largest annual program for the smaller banner in several years, and it targets the lower-income shopper most exposed to the price environment. Two consecutive upward revisions inside a single fiscal year is the kind of pattern that historically precedes a higher opening number in the following year, because it reflects a real estate pipeline that is filling faster than the plan assumed.
Guidance for the back half is also consistent with a company that sees its box economics improving: third-quarter comps are guided to 6% to 7% and fourth-quarter comps to 4% to 5%, with full-year EPS of $8.61 to $8.77. The company also plans $1.275 billion of buybacks this fiscal year, which matters for the prediction because it shows Ross can fund a bigger opening program without leaning on the balance sheet. We noted in our June read of the first-quarter off-price beats that tax refunds and BNPL flattered spring demand; the second quarter suggests the traffic gain has more staying power than that read implied.
Signal 3: Burlington commits capex and spends the refund on price
Burlington’s August 27 release showed total sales up 11% to about $3.0 billion, comps up 2% on top of 5% last year, and a fifteenth consecutive quarter of double-digit adjusted EPS growth. The company ended the quarter with 1,287 stores and reiterated a plan of approximately 115 net new stores for fiscal 2026, alongside capital expenditures of about $875 million net of landlord allowances, excluding any headquarters relocation cost.
The capex figure is the earnings-language signal here. Burlington’s “2.0” plan, laid out for the 2024 to 2028 period, called for roughly 100 net new stores a year; 115 in 2026 already runs ahead of that pace, and the $875 million envelope is sized for a program of that scale to continue. The release also refers to expenses associated with “bankruptcy acquired leases”, which points to the company still absorbing boxes vacated by the 2025 chapter 11 wave, a sourcing channel that has supplied a meaningful share of recent off-price openings.
The refund decision is the second half of the tell. Chief executive Michael O’Sullivan said the company received $55 million in tariff refunds and intends “to fully invest these refunds back into the business in the back-half of the year, to deliver even sharper values to our shoppers”, so that the direct effect on full-year earnings is neutral. As we reported when Burlington chose price over profit, the third-quarter EPS guide of $1.60 to $1.70 sits below last year’s $1.80 as a result. A management team spending one-time cash on the value gap, while holding a 115-store plan and a near-$900 million capex budget, is prioritizing footprint and share over the quarter.
What the pattern suggests
Read together, the three August releases describe a sector that is moving from opportunistic expansion to planned acceleration. TJX has put a number and a start date on it. Ross has revised upward twice in four months. Burlington has funded a year that already exceeds its multi-year pace.
The signals are independent in the sense that matters: three different management teams, three different real estate pipelines, and three different comp profiles (1% at Marmaxx, 10% at Ross, 2% at Burlington) all arriving at the same answer on stores.
The arithmetic for 2027 follows from the disclosures. A 4% pace at TJX on a base approaching 5,450 stores by the end of fiscal 2027 implies about 215 net openings. Ross holding 115 and Burlington holding 115 would take the trio to roughly 445.
Even a conservative reading, with Ross flat at 115 and Burlington reverting to its 100-a-year plan, still lands above 425. The 400 threshold in the prediction therefore carries a cushion of about 25 to 45 stores against slippage, which is why the call is framed as “at least 400” rather than a point estimate.
| Signal | Date | Comp | 2026 opening plan | 2027 language | Refund treatment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJX (Q2 FY27) | Aug 19, 2026 | +4% consolidated; Marmaxx +1% | About 3% store growth (roughly 150 to 160 net) | Accelerate to about 4% from fiscal 2028; target 7,000 to 7,500 | $331m received; $112m accrued for employee compensation; guidance raised |
| Ross (Q2 FY26) | Aug 20, 2026 | +10% (traffic-led) | 115 (raised from about 90, then about 110) | No 2027 number yet; second in-year raise | About $253m recognized in EPS; included in full-year guide |
| Burlington (Q2 FY26) | Aug 27, 2026 | +2% (7% two-year stack) | About 115 net; capex about $875m | Running ahead of the 100-a-year “2.0” plan | $55m reinvested in price; neutral to full-year earnings |
Why do the signals point to 2027 specifically, rather than a slower multi-year drift? Because the constraint on off-price openings has never been demand or capital; it has been sites. The 2025 bankruptcy wave in US specialty and general merchandise retail released a large pool of 20,000 to 40,000 square foot boxes, and the leases signed on those boxes in late 2025 and early 2026 convert into openings across 2026 and 2027. The chains that could move fastest on that supply are the ones now raising their numbers.
The timing of the pipeline, more than any single management statement, is what puts the peak in 2027.
The checkpoints between now and March
The call resolves in stages, and each stage is observable. The first is the third-quarter reporting window in mid to late November 2026, when Ross and Burlington are expected to reiterate 115 openings for 2026 and TJX is expected to repeat the fiscal 2028 acceleration language. A downgrade of any 2026 number in November would be the earliest warning that the 2027 pipeline is slipping.
The second checkpoint is the January investor conference season, where all three companies have historically previewed the shape of the coming year’s real estate program without giving a number. The third and decisive one is the fourth-quarter round in late February to early March 2027, when the fiscal 2027 (or fiscal 2028, at TJX) opening plans are published. The prediction is scored on those disclosures, not on how many stores actually open, because openings are subject to construction timing that management does not fully control.
One useful secondary indicator is the mix inside the plans. A 2027 number that leans on dd’s DISCOUNTS at Ross, HomeGoods at TJX, or relocations at Burlington would suggest the chains are working around a shortage of prime apparel boxes; a plan weighted to the flagship banners would suggest site supply is holding up. Either way, the total is what the call rests on.
Wider context: full-price retail is handing over the boxes
The off-price acceleration is the mirror image of what is happening at the other end of the mall. Department stores and mid-market specialty chains have spent 2025 and 2026 shrinking, and TJX’s own explanation for its rural opportunity was that “department stores are closing” in those markets. When one chain vacates an anchor pad, the landlord’s most credit-worthy replacement tenants in a 25,000 to 40,000 square foot range are frequently an off-price banner, a HomeGoods, or a dd’s DISCOUNTS. Our explainer on how chains decide which stores to close first describes the triage on the other side of that trade.
Real estate availability is nonetheless tightening at the national level, which is the most important piece of context for the caveats below. Cushman & Wakefield’s second-quarter US retail MarketBeat, published in mid-July, put national retail vacancy at 6.0%, only three basis points higher than the prior quarter and well below the 7.4% historical average, with net absorption of about 708,000 square feet and very little new supply. That is a market where the marginal box is getting more expensive and the best sites go to the tenants who commit earliest. It rewards the chains that are willing to guide store growth ahead of comps, which is exactly what TJX did.
The wider capex picture in US retail also supports the read that 2027 is a build year. Target reiterated roughly $5 billion of capex for fiscal 2026 on August 19, with 24 new full-size stores opened year to date and about 130 remodels planned. Walmart poured its $2.9 billion tariff refund into price rollbacks the following day. We previously argued that depreciation becomes a named retail margin headwind by spring 2027; the off-price opening numbers are one of the reasons that call still stands.
| Precedent | What management said | What followed | Read-across to 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| TJX long-term target raise to 7,000 (early 2025) | Store potential lifted on existing banners and markets | Openings held at about 3% through fiscal 2026 and 2027 | The 7,500 raise came with a pace change this time, which the 7,000 raise did not |
| Burlington 2.0 plan (2023) | Roughly 500 net new stores over 2024 to 2028 | About 100 a year in 2024 and 2025; 115 planned for 2026 | The plan is being beaten, not met; 2027 at 100 would be a deceleration |
| Ross in-year plan raises (2026) | About 90, then about 110, then 115 | 47 openings in Q2 alone; 2,328 stores at quarter end | Two raises in one year historically precede a higher opening year, not a flat one |
| Post-2009 off-price share gain | Value positioning plus vacated space after the financial crisis | Multi-year store growth while department stores consolidated | The same two ingredients (excess inventory, vacated boxes) are present again |
Implications for retailers, landlords and investors
For full-price apparel and home retailers, the practical implication is that the 2027 competitive set gets bigger by roughly one Burlington-sized chain every three years. A retailer with 500 US stores should expect several dozen new off-price doors inside its trade areas next year, many of them in the same centers. Pricing architecture, clearance cadence, and the decision to sell excess inventory to off-price buyers all deserve a second look before the 2027 buying calendar is set.
For brands, the more stores off-price opens, the more predictable the off-price channel becomes as an outlet for excess inventory, and the harder it becomes to keep that channel invisible to full-price customers. Brands that have relied on off-price as a quiet clearance valve should expect their products to appear in more markets, including rural ones where they may have had no wholesale presence at all. Contract terms on quantities, labeling and timing are worth revisiting before the 2027 allocation cycle.
For landlords and developers, the signals argue for holding out for off-price credit on second-generation anchor pads rather than backfilling with lower-rent uses. Vacancy near 6.0% nationally means the negotiating leverage sits with owners of well-located boxes in the 25,000 to 40,000 square foot band, and the three chains have effectively announced they will be bidding for those boxes through 2027. Landlord allowances, which Burlington nets out of its capex figure, are likely to compress as a share of build cost.
For investors, the more useful lens is the trade-off between store growth and comp quality. TJX’s shares fell on a plan to build faster while Marmaxx comps slowed; Ross’s shares have been carried by a 10% comp; Burlington’s Q3 guide sits below last year because of the refund decision. The prediction here is about footprint, not about which stock outperforms.
If the footprint numbers come in as expected, the next question, which we expect the November calls to address, is whether new-store productivity holds as the pace rises. We flagged in our look at the coming Q3 earnings round that inventory is likely to outrun sales at the big-box bellwethers; off-price is the natural buyer of that overhang, which is a supply tailwind for exactly the stores being built.
| Scenario | 2027 combined net openings | What it would take | Probability (our read) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | 400 to 450 | TJX at about 4%, Ross at 115 or above, Burlington at 100 to 115 | Likely |
| Upside | 450 or more | Ross raises to 120 or more; Burlington holds 115 or higher; TJX runs above 4% | Plausible but not the central case |
| Downside | Below 380 | TJX defers the 4% pace to fiscal 2029 on Marmaxx weakness; Burlington trims to 100; Ross flat | Possible; would falsify the call |
Caveats: what could go wrong
The strongest counter-signal is the 1% Marmaxx comp. TJ Maxx and Marshalls are the largest US off-price fleet by a wide margin, and a small decline in transactions is not the backdrop on which a company typically accelerates openings. If Marmaxx comps stay at 1% or below through the holiday quarter, the “starting next year” language could soften into a range, and TJX could keep fiscal 2028 nearer to 3% while still holding the 7,500 target. That single decision would remove 50 or more stores from the 2027 total and would likely push the trio below 400.
The second caveat is real estate availability itself. Vacancy near record lows cuts both ways: it validates the chains’ urgency, but it also means the supply of suitable boxes at acceptable rents can run out faster than the store plans assume. Burlington’s guidance, in particular, has historically been sensitive to site timing, with openings slipping between quarters when construction or landlord delivery lagged. A 2027 plan that is committed in principle can still be reported as a lower number if leases sign late.
Third, the 2026 numbers are flattered by one-time money. Tariff refunds of $331 million at TJX, roughly $253 million at Ross and $55 million at Burlington all landed in the second quarter, and the administrative process for the remaining refunds has been uneven. The refunds do not fund the stores directly, but they have supported the comps and the margins that give management the confidence to build; if the refund tailwind fades in the third quarter while gas prices and a cooling grocery comp weigh on the low-income shopper, the tone on capex could turn more cautious.
Fourth, a broader consumer downturn would hit the value shopper too. Kroger’s 0.2% comp and Walmart’s weakest comp in six years, both reported in this same window, are reminders that the customer off-price is adding stores for is not immune. Off-price tends to gain share in a slowdown, but share gain on a shrinking base does not always justify a faster build.
Finally, the prediction is deliberately narrow. It does not claim that new-store productivity holds, that comps stay positive, or that any of the three stocks rerate. It claims only that the combined 2027 opening plan, as disclosed at the Q4 calls, reaches at least 400, with each chain at or above its 2026 plan. If TJX guides a 4% pace, Ross guides 115 or more, and Burlington guides 100 or more, the call is confirmed; if any of the three guides below its 2026 plan, it is wrong.
FAQ
What exactly is the prediction and when can it be checked?
The prediction is that TJX, Ross Stores and Burlington combined guide at least 400 net new stores for calendar 2027 (TJX fiscal 2028, Ross and Burlington fiscal 2027), with each chain at or above its 2026 plan. It can be checked at the fourth-quarter earnings calls, which the pattern of prior years places in late February to early March 2027. The Q3 calls in mid to late November 2026 offer an early read.
Has TJX not already announced the acceleration? Where is the prediction?
TJX has said it plans to accelerate to about 4% “starting next year”, but it has not published a fiscal 2028 store count, and the statement was paired with a 1% Marmaxx comp. The prediction is that the pace is confirmed as a number in February 2027 rather than softened, and that Ross and Burlington, which have given no 2027 figures, also guide at or above their 2026 plans. The combined threshold is the falsifiable part.
Why is 400 a meaningful number?
The three chains are planning roughly 380 openings for 2026 (about 150 to 160 at TJX, 115 at Ross, about 115 at Burlington). A 400-plus 2027 figure would be a record for the listed trio and would mean the acceleration is real across the sector rather than concentrated at one company. A figure in the 380s would suggest a plateau; anything below 380 would falsify the call.
Could the Marmaxx slowdown stop TJX from accelerating?
It is the main risk. A small decline in transactions at TJ Maxx and Marshalls is not the usual backdrop for faster openings, and management could keep fiscal 2028 nearer to 3% while holding the 7,500 target. That said, TJX chose to announce the faster pace knowing the Marmaxx number, and the shares fell on the day, which suggests the decision was made with eyes open rather than as a reaction to a strong quarter.
Do tariff refunds have anything to do with store growth?
Indirectly. The refunds ($331 million at TJX, roughly $253 million at Ross, $55 million at Burlington) boosted second-quarter earnings and, in Burlington’s case, are being spent on price. They do not fund stores, which are financed from operating cash flow and landlord allowances. Their relevance is that they have supported the comps and margins that give management confidence, and that support fades as the refund process winds down.
Is there enough real estate for 400 new off-price stores in one year?
National retail vacancy of about 6.0% is near historic lows, which is the strongest argument against the call. Two factors work the other way: the 2025 bankruptcy wave released a pool of mid-size boxes that is still converting into openings, and department-store closures in rural markets are creating anchor pads that TJX explicitly cited. Site timing is the most likely reason a committed plan gets reported as a lower number.
What would a downside scenario look like?
TJX defers the 4% pace to fiscal 2029 citing Marmaxx, Burlington reverts to its 100-a-year plan after a soft holiday quarter, and Ross holds 115. That combination lands the trio in the 360 to 380 range, below the threshold, and would signal that the August language was a peak rather than a start. A deteriorating low-income consumer through the holiday quarter would be the most likely trigger.
What should a full-price retailer do with this?
Assume the 2027 competitive set in apparel and home includes several dozen more off-price doors in your trade areas, review clearance cadence and pricing architecture before the 2027 buying calendar is locked, and decide deliberately whether excess inventory goes to off-price buyers. Landlords with mid-size second-generation boxes should expect competing bids from the three chains through 2027.