The US Census Bureau publishes its advance estimate of August retail and food services sales on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The report lands five and a half hours before the Federal Reserve announces its rate decision, and it follows a July print that fell 0.6%, the sharpest monthly decline in more than a year. For retailers heading into the holiday build, the August figure is the first full read on how shoppers behaved through a record month at the pump, a stronger-than-expected jobs report, and a wave of tariff-refund price cuts.
In short
- Release timing: August advance retail sales publish September 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET; the Fed’s decision follows at 2:00 p.m. ET the same day, with markets pricing roughly a 70% chance of a quarter-point hike, according to reports citing CME FedWatch.
- The base to beat: July sales were $763.6 billion, down 0.6% from June (the consensus had been about +0.1%) but up 5.0% from a year earlier; nonstore retailers fell 2.2% and auto dealers 1.8%.
- Gasoline distorts the headline: the national average stayed above $4 every day in August, per AAA, and gasoline CPI rose 3.9% in the month; gas-station sales carry price, not volume, into the nominal total.
- Autos point up: Cox Automotive estimates the August selling rate at 16.8 million, up 2.7% from July, which supports the motor-vehicle line that dragged July down.
- Sentiment points down: the University of Michigan’s preliminary September index dropped to 47.8, with year-ahead inflation expectations at 4.6%, so any August strength may not carry into the fall.
What exactly gets released on September 16?
The Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services report, known in the trade as MARTS, is the earliest official measure of US consumer spending on goods and restaurant meals. It is built from a subsample of roughly 4,800 firms, weighted to represent more than three million retail and food service businesses, according to the Census Bureau’s methodology notes. The figures are seasonally adjusted and adjusted for trading-day differences, but they are not adjusted for prices. That last point matters more than usual this month.
The Census Bureau lists the August release for September 16 at 8:30 a.m. EDT, with the September data following on October 15. The Bureau has also flagged a separate event that retail analysts should diary: revised, benchmarked estimates reflecting the 2023 and 2024 Annual Integrated Economic Survey are tentatively scheduled for September 28 at 10:00 a.m. EDT. Those revisions can reshape the recent trend line even where the August headline itself is unremarkable. The full calendar is on the Bureau’s retail release schedule page.
Each release carries the headline monthly change, the year-over-year change, a three-month comparison, and a breakdown across 13 kinds of business. Analysts also watch three derived aggregates: sales excluding motor vehicles and parts, sales excluding gasoline stations, and the combination of both, which strips out the two most volatile lines. The so-called control group, which additionally removes building materials and food services, feeds directly into GDP estimates of consumer spending.
Why did July fall 0.6% and what does that set up?
July was the report that broke a run of gains. Advance estimates put July sales at $763.6 billion, down 0.6% (plus or minus 0.4 points) from a revised $768.1 billion in June, but up 5.0% from July 2025. May through July ran 6.3% above the same period a year earlier, and June’s small 0.2% gain was left unrevised. Economists polled ahead of the release had expected a rise of roughly 0.1%, per data compiled by Investing.com, with individual forecasts spanning from a 0.5% fall to a 0.7% gain.
Transport Topics reported the July drop as the largest since May 2025 and attributed part of it to the fading of tax-refund spending that had lifted April and May. Christopher Rupkey of fwdbonds told the outlet it was “not lights out for the economy, but new risks are emerging if the consumer pulls their support for economic growth.” The two biggest drags were motor vehicle and parts dealers, down 1.8%, and nonstore retailers, down 2.2%, the latter widely read as a hangover from a late-June Amazon Prime Day that pulled online spending forward.
The shape of the July decline is what makes August interesting. Excluding autos, sales fell 0.3%; excluding both autos and gasoline, they fell just 0.2%, a figure whose 90% confidence interval includes zero. In other words, the core of the July decline was concentrated in two lines, cars and online, and both have plausible reasons to swing back in August. shopappy’s preview of the July retail sales report had flagged back-to-school timing and tariff pass-through as the swing factors, and both are still in play.
July by kind of business
| Kind of business (NAICS) | July vs June | July vs July 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Retail and food services, total | -0.6% | +5.0% |
| Total excluding motor vehicles and parts | -0.3% | +5.8% |
| Total excluding autos and gasoline | -0.2% | +4.8% |
| Motor vehicle and parts dealers (441) | -1.8% | +1.9% |
| Furniture and home furnishings (442) | +0.3% | -1.2% |
| Electronics and appliance stores (443) | -0.5% | +4.7% |
| Building materials and garden (444) | +0.3% | +6.7% |
| Food and beverage stores (445) | 0.0% | +0.9% |
| Health and personal care (446) | +0.7% | +1.1% |
| Gasoline stations (447) | -0.9% | +16.2% |
| Clothing and accessories (448) | +1.9% | +5.0% |
| Sporting goods, hobby, music, books (451) | 0.0% | +10.1% |
| General merchandise stores (452) | +0.3% | +3.7% |
| Department stores (4522) | +0.1% | +2.5% |
| Miscellaneous store retailers (453) | +0.5% | +10.7% |
| Nonstore retailers (454) | -2.2% | +7.7% |
| Food services and drinking places (722) | +0.5% | +5.0% |
Source: US Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, August 14, 2026. Seasonally adjusted, not adjusted for price changes.
How much of August will be gasoline?
The single largest known input to the August headline is fuel. AAA reported that the national average price of regular gasoline stayed above $4 per gallon on every day of August, making it the most expensive August on record and surpassing the previous high set in 2022. The average stood at $4.09 on August 27 and reached $4.14 over Labor Day weekend, which AAA called the highest price ever recorded for the holiday, beating the $3.82 mark from September 3, 2012. AAA attributed the run-up to continued volatility in the Strait of Hormuz, with crude trading around $90 a barrel.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed the price effect on September 11. The consumer price index rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over 12 months; the gasoline index rose 3.9% in the month and 27.4% from a year earlier, accounting for more than a third of the monthly all-items increase. Because the retail sales report is nominal, higher pump prices show up as higher gas-station sales even if drivers bought fewer gallons. July’s gas-station line was already up 16.2% year over year on a 0.9% monthly decline, a combination that only makes sense when prices, not volumes, are doing the work.
That is why the ex-gasoline aggregates deserve at least as much attention as the headline on September 16. A strong total that leans on gasoline tells retailers nothing about discretionary demand. A soft ex-auto, ex-gas figure alongside a firm headline would suggest that fuel is crowding out spending elsewhere, which is the pattern shopappy examined when asking whether fuel and energy will outrank tariffs in retailers’ November guidance.
What the August CPI says about the rest of the basket
Outside energy, August prices were calm by 2026 standards. Core CPI rose 0.3% in the month and 2.4% over the year, while food at home was unchanged on the month and up 2.2% year over year, which limits the price contribution from grocery stores. Apparel was flat on the month and up 3.6% on the year. New-vehicle prices rose 0.3%, used-vehicle prices 0.4%, and shelter 0.3%, with the annual shelter rate easing to 3.0% from 3.2% in July.
For the retail sales arithmetic, that mix implies most of the nominal lift from prices will sit in gasoline stations, with modest support for clothing and autos and very little for grocery. Any August gain in food and beverage stores would therefore be closer to a real volume gain than the gas-station number can be. Retailers that reported August quarters have described exactly that kind of low-inflation grocery environment, including Kroger, whose identical sales grew just 0.2% in its latest quarter.
Will autos rescue the headline?
The motor-vehicle line, which subtracted the most from July, looks set to add in August. Cox Automotive’s weekly summary published September 8 estimated the August seasonally adjusted annual selling rate at 16.8 million units, up 1.6% from a year earlier and 2.7% above July’s 16.3 million pace. Unit volume came in at 1.381 million, down 5.8% year over year because August 2026 had fewer selling days, but up 1.3% from July. Cox described the August pace as the strongest of 2026 so far and the sixth straight month above 16 million, the longest such streak since early 2020.
Prices reinforce the volume story in a nominal series. Cox reported that the average transaction price exceeded $50,000 for the first time since December, while incentive spending fell to $3,264 per unit, down 0.6% from July and 7.3% from a year earlier, at 6.5% of the transaction price. With dealer inventories constrained, Cox said pricing “reflected steady demand” and dealers held pricing power despite affordability concerns. Fleet share edged up to 15.5% from 15% a year earlier, which matters because fleet deliveries pass through dealers and count in the Census line.
Put together, a higher selling rate, higher transaction prices and lower incentives point to a positive August print for motor vehicle and parts dealers after July’s 1.8% decline. That alone could flip the headline from negative to positive even if the rest of the basket is flat. It is also why economists typically discount the headline and focus on the ex-auto measure when the car market is moving this much month to month.
Did shoppers actually spend more in August?
The labor market says they had the means. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on September 4 that nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, far above the roughly 53,000 consensus cited by CNBC and well above the prior 12-month average of 31,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and June was revised up to 31,000 from 20,000 and July to a gain of 21,000 from a previously reported loss of 23,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% on the month and 3.1% on the year to $37.75, and the average workweek edged up to 34.4 hours.
Retail trade employment “showed little change” in August, per the BLS, while food services and drinking places added 59,000 jobs against a 12-month average of 12,000. A restaurant hiring surge of that size is consistent with strong August dining demand, which feeds the food services line of the Census report. July’s food services line was already up 0.5% on the month and 5.0% on the year, and the August CPI showed food away from home up 0.3% in the month, so a nominal gain in restaurants looks likely.
The sentiment data cut the other way, but with a timing caveat. The University of Michigan’s preliminary September survey, released September 11, showed the headline index falling 3.9 points to 47.8, well below the roughly 51 economists had expected, according to reports. The expectations component dropped to 45.8 and year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% from 4.0%, the highest since June. Survey director Joanne Hsu noted that the reading “substantially exceeds the 3.4 percent seen in February before the Iran conflict began.” Because the survey period runs into September, it describes the mood after August, not the spending within it.
Back-to-school and the online line
August is a back-to-school month, and the calendar helped this year relative to July. July’s nonstore decline of 2.2% followed a late-June Prime Day, so the comparison base for August online sales is depressed, which mechanically favors a rebound. Clothing stores, which rose 1.9% in July, tend to see their seasonal peak spread across late July and August as school start dates move around the country. Transport Topics noted that Target reported 95% of school supplies at or below prior-year prices, an early sign that retailers absorbed rather than passed on cost increases in that category.
The tariff refund cycle adds another layer. Following the Supreme Court’s February ruling against the IEEPA tariffs, retailers have been booking refunds and, in several cases, spending them on price. shopappy has tracked Walmart’s decision to pour a $2.9 billion tariff refund into price cuts, and Burlington’s smaller but similar move. Those cuts lower nominal sales per unit even as they support volume, a second reason the August headline may understate real demand.
What did retailers say about August in their own numbers?
Company reports that straddle August give a partial preview. Macy’s, reporting on September 10, posted second-quarter net sales of $4.9 billion, up 1.1%, with comparable sales up 1.1% at the Macy’s nameplate, more than 11% at Bloomingdale’s and more than 6% at Bluemercury, according to Retail Dive. Net income nearly doubled to $169 million. The company said it received the full $116 million tariff refund it expected, allocating about $20 million to earnings and directing the rest to brand investment, faster store renovations, a buffer against fuel volatility and selective price reductions in furniture and fine jewelry.
The Macy’s allocation is a useful template for how the refund money reaches the Census data: only a sliver goes to price, so the aggregate deflationary effect on retail sales is smaller than the headline refund figures suggest. GlobalData’s Neil Saunders described the string of Macy’s beats as “a major win,” while Evercore ISI’s Michael Binetti said the firm preferred Macy’s approach of pulling forward its reinvestment agenda. Both comments were reported by Retail Dive.
Grocery tells a flatter story. Kroger’s identical sales grew 0.2% in its quarter ended in August, and the company trimmed its full-year identical sales guidance to 0.2% to 0.8%, as shopappy reported. With food-at-home prices unchanged in August per the BLS, grocers are not getting inflation to pad their nominal comps, and the Census food and beverage line, up just 0.9% year over year in July, is likely to stay in low single digits.
The August indicator scorecard
| Indicator | August reading | Source and date | Implication for retail sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls | +162,000; unemployment 4.1% | BLS, September 4 | Supports income and spending |
| Average hourly earnings | +0.3% m/m, +3.1% y/y | BLS, September 4 | Real wage growth roughly flat vs 3.4% CPI |
| Headline CPI | +0.4% m/m, +3.4% y/y | BLS, September 11 | Nominal lift, mostly gasoline |
| Gasoline CPI | +3.9% m/m, +27.4% y/y | BLS, September 11 | Inflates gas-station sales |
| Food at home CPI | 0.0% m/m, +2.2% y/y | BLS, September 11 | Little price help for grocers |
| Light-vehicle SAAR | 16.8 million, +2.7% vs July | Cox Automotive, September 8 | Positive swing in the auto line |
| Average vehicle transaction price | Above $50,000 | Cox Automotive, September 8 | Adds nominal dollars per sale |
| National average gasoline | Above $4 every day; $4.09 on Aug 27 | AAA | Record August at the pump |
| Consumer sentiment (prelim. September) | 47.8, down 3.9 points | University of Michigan, September 11 | Warns on September, not August |
How does the Fed decision on the same day change the reading?
The Federal Open Market Committee meets September 15 and 16, with the statement due at 2:00 p.m. ET on the 16th. The federal funds target range has sat at 3.50–3.75% throughout 2026. According to a Yahoo Finance report citing the CME FedWatch tool on September 11, markets assigned a 69.3% probability to a quarter-point increase at this meeting, up from about 44% in early August. CNBC has reported that the shift followed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks, in which he called the 2% inflation target “fixed,” and the stronger August jobs report.
That sequencing puts retail sales in an unusual position. A hot August print, especially one with a firm ex-auto, ex-gas core, would be read as confirmation that demand can absorb a hike. A weak print would complicate the hawkish case but is unlikely to change a decision that the committee will have largely settled by the morning of the 16th. For retailers, the second-order effect is what matters: a higher policy rate raises the cost of store credit, buy now pay later funding and inventory financing into the holiday quarter.
The same 8:30 a.m. slot also brings August import and export prices from the BLS, per the weekly economic calendar. Import prices exclude tariffs, so they measure what foreign suppliers charged rather than what landed goods cost, but a rising import price index alongside a soft retail print would be a doubly uncomfortable combination for merchandise margins.
Where do tariffs sit in the August numbers?
Tariffs enter the retail sales data through prices, and the August CPI suggests the pass-through into goods prices was limited outside energy. Apparel prices were flat on the month, furniture and appliance categories were not highlighted as drivers, and core goods inflation remained subdued relative to services. That is consistent with what large retailers reported over the summer: refunds from the struck-down IEEPA tariffs were being recycled into price investment, while the remaining Section 232 and Section 301 duties were being absorbed into margins or offset by sourcing shifts.
The forward calendar is less benign. The week of the retail sales report is also the week the US widens its 50% Section 338 duty list on Canadian goods, effective September 15, with the import ban on Canadian packaged alcohol following on September 29. Those measures fall on categories, furniture, cheese, mattresses and spirits among them, that show up in the general merchandise, furniture and food and beverage lines. Their effect on August is nil; their effect on the fourth quarter is where the pricing debate will move next.
Refund money is also finite and, for some importers, at risk. Congress has pressed Customs and Border Protection on the 90-day filing window for IEEPA refunds while the CAPE system backlog persists, and retailers that have not yet booked refunds have less room to fund price cuts than Walmart or Macy’s did. Investors will listen closely on the next round of earnings calls for whether price investment continues once the refund tailwind fades.
The week’s calendar for retail and trade
| Date (ET) | Event | Why it matters for retail |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, September 15 | Canada Section 338 duty list widens; FOMC meeting begins; ICSC and Redbook weekly sales | New 50% duties on furniture, cheese, mattresses, lamps; weekly chain-store reads |
| Wednesday, September 16, 8:30 a.m. | August advance retail sales; August import and export prices | First official August demand read; supplier price trend |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2:00 p.m. | FOMC statement and press conference | Roughly 70% priced for a 25 bp hike; consumer credit costs |
| Friday, September 18 | CBP begins voiding importer of record numbers with inaccurate Form 5106 data | Import compliance risk for smaller merchants |
| Monday, September 28, 10:00 a.m. | Census annual benchmark revisions to retail sales | May restate the 2025–2026 trend |
| Thursday, October 15, 8:30 a.m. | September advance retail sales | First read on the pre-holiday quarter’s final month |
What would a strong or weak print look like?
No firm consensus for August had been published as of September 12; Investing.com’s calendar listed the forecast as not yet available. That leaves the shape of the release to be inferred from the inputs above. On the headline, the combination of a record gasoline month and a 2.7% rise in the auto selling rate makes a positive total change the base case, with the July decline of 0.6% as the comparison. A print that fails to rise at all despite those two tailwinds would signal genuine weakness in the rest of the basket.
On the core, the ex-auto, ex-gas measure fell 0.2% in July with a confidence interval that included zero. A repeat of that pattern, flat to slightly negative, would fit the picture of a consumer whose nominal wage growth of 3.1% is roughly matched by 3.4% inflation and who is paying a record amount for fuel. A gain of 0.3% or more in that measure would suggest August back-to-school demand and tariff-funded price cuts pulled volume forward, which is the outcome retailers reporting in September have generally described.
The year-over-year comparison also deserves care. July’s total was up 5.0% on a year earlier, and the three-month average was up 6.3%, figures that look generous next to a 3.4% inflation rate. Part of that gap is the gasoline base effect, and part is that the 2025 comparison months were themselves affected by tariff front-running. As the Census annual revision on September 28 lands, the year-over-year growth rates are the numbers most likely to move.
Reading the release: three checks in the first five minutes
First, compare the headline with the ex-auto, ex-gas line; if the gap exceeds half a percentage point, the total is being driven by cars and fuel rather than discretionary demand. Second, check the revision to July; a revision of the 0.6% decline toward zero would mean the summer slowdown was shallower than reported, while a downward revision would compound the weakness. Third, look at nonstore retailers; a rebound of 1% or more would confirm that July’s drop was calendar-driven rather than the start of an e-commerce slowdown.
For the holiday outlook, the department store and general merchandise lines are the ones to weigh against forecasts. Bain’s projection of a first $1 trillion November–December season, with more than half the growth coming from inflation, assumes that nominal demand holds up through the fall. shopappy’s coverage of the Bain holiday forecast set out the assumptions; the August retail sales report is the first hard data point against which they can be tested.
What should retailers and sellers do with the number?
Merchants planning fourth-quarter inventory should treat the September 16 report as a check on the volume assumptions behind their holiday orders, not as a forecast. A nominal gain driven by gasoline and autos does not justify deeper discretionary buys; a flat ex-auto, ex-gas core does not by itself justify cutting them, given that the tariff-refund price investment by large chains has been deliberately suppressing nominal growth while supporting units. Sellers on marketplaces should look at the nonstore line in particular, since a strong rebound there after July’s Prime Day hangover would confirm that online demand did not weaken structurally.
Financing decisions are the second use. If the Fed hikes on the afternoon of the 16th, the cost of floor-plan and working-capital lines resets before peak-season inventory is fully paid for. Retailers that used tariff refunds to cut prices rather than to retire debt will be the ones most exposed to that combination. The refund cycle, the fuel shock and the rate path are converging on the same week, which is why this particular retail sales release carries more weight than the usual monthly print.
Frequently asked questions
When is the August 2026 retail sales report released?
The US Census Bureau will publish the Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services for August 2026 on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The September data follow on October 15.
What did the July 2026 retail sales report show?
July sales were $763.6 billion, down 0.6% from June and up 5.0% from July 2025. Excluding autos and gasoline, sales fell 0.2%. Motor vehicle dealers fell 1.8% and nonstore retailers fell 2.2%, while clothing stores rose 1.9%.
Is there a consensus forecast for August retail sales?
As of September 12, no firm consensus had been published on major economic calendars. The inputs available, including a stronger auto selling rate and record August gasoline prices, point to a positive nominal headline, but the core ex-auto, ex-gas measure is the more uncertain figure.
Why do gasoline prices matter so much for this report?
Retail sales are reported in current dollars without adjustment for prices. AAA reported that the national average stayed above $4 per gallon every day in August, and gasoline CPI rose 3.9% in the month, so gas-station sales will rise on price even if volumes fell.
How does the Fed meeting on September 16 relate to the retail sales report?
The FOMC concludes its two-day meeting on September 16 with a statement at 2:00 p.m. ET, five and a half hours after the retail data. Reports citing CME FedWatch put the probability of a quarter-point hike near 70%. A strong retail print would reinforce the case for tightening.
Did tariffs push August retail prices higher?
The August CPI shows limited goods inflation outside energy: apparel prices were flat on the month and food at home was unchanged. Several large retailers have used refunds of the struck-down IEEPA tariffs to cut prices, which offsets remaining Section 232 and Section 301 duties in the aggregate data.
What are the annual revisions on September 28?
The Census Bureau has tentatively scheduled the release of revised monthly retail sales estimates, benchmarked to the 2023 and 2024 Annual Integrated Economic Survey, for September 28, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. EDT. These can change recent monthly and year-over-year growth rates.
Which categories should retailers watch most closely?
Nonstore retailers, for a rebound after July’s Prime Day hangover; clothing and general merchandise, for back-to-school demand; and food and beverage stores, where flat grocery inflation means any gain reflects volume rather than price.
How reliable is the advance estimate?
The advance estimate is based on roughly 4,800 firms and carries a 90% confidence interval of about plus or minus 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points on the monthly change. Small moves are often statistically indistinguishable from zero, as the Census Bureau’s own footnotes note, and revisions in later months are common.