Walmart Inc. reports second quarter fiscal 2027 results on Thursday, August 20, 2026, and the print arrives at the most awkward moment in the American import calendar for a decade. The company confirmed on its investor relations site that quarterly materials will be posted at approximately 6 a.m. CT, with a conference call for the investment community starting at 7 a.m. CT.
The quarter under review runs through the end of July, which places it squarely inside the first full period governed by the Section 301 forced labor duties that took effect on July 24, 2026. It also lands one day after a separate 50% tariff on a list of Canadian goods is scheduled to begin.
For the world’s largest retailer, the question is no longer whether tariffs matter. It is how much of the cost Walmart has absorbed, how much it has passed to shoppers, and whether the high margin businesses it has spent five years building (advertising, membership, marketplace and fulfillment services) are now large enough to pay for the difference.
In short
- Date and time: Walmart reports Q2 FY2027 results on August 20, 2026, materials at about 6 a.m. CT, call at 7 a.m. CT.
- The bar: analyst consensus points to revenue of about USD 186.77 billion, up from roughly USD 177.40 billion a year earlier, with adjusted EPS near USD 0.74.
- Company guidance: issued in May, it called for net sales growth of 4% to 5% in constant currency and adjusted EPS of USD 0.72 to USD 0.74.
- Tariff overhang: the quarter covers the start of Section 301 forced labor duties of 10% or 12.5% on 60 economies, and closes days before 50% Section 338 duties on Canadian goods.
- Hidden upside: guidance reportedly assumes no benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds, which US customs authorities began processing after a March 2026 court order.
What exactly does Walmart report on August 20?
Walmart’s fiscal year runs to the end of January, so the second quarter of fiscal 2027 covers the three months to July 31, 2026. That timing matters more than usual this year. It captures the full back-to-school build, the second Walmart Deals summer event window, and the first weeks of the newest US tariff layer.
According to the company’s investor relations event listing, the earnings materials will be published at approximately 6 a.m. CT on August 20, with a live call at 7 a.m. CT carried on the company’s webcast channel and a replay available afterwards.
The reporting package normally includes three segment lines: Walmart US, Walmart International and Sam’s Club. Investors will read them in that order, but the commentary that moves the stock usually sits elsewhere, in gross margin, in inventory, and in the outlook paragraph.
The three numbers that set the tone
First, Walmart US comparable sales excluding fuel. This is the cleanest read on whether the American consumer is trading down toward Walmart or simply spending less. In the first quarter of fiscal 2027, that figure came in at 4.1%.
Second, global e-commerce growth. Walmart reported a 26% rise in the first quarter, with Walmart US e-commerce also up 26% and Sam’s Club US e-commerce up 23%, driven by store-fulfilled delivery, advertising and the third-party marketplace.
Third, the shape of profit. Operating income grew 5% in the first quarter to USD 7.49 billion, a slower rate than sales, with the company pointing to higher fuel costs across distribution and fulfillment as a drag of roughly 250 basis points.
What are analysts expecting for the second quarter?
Consensus compiled ahead of the print points to revenue of about USD 186.77 billion, against roughly USD 177.40 billion in the year-ago quarter. That implies growth near 5.3%, slightly ahead of the top end of the company’s own constant currency guidance range.
On earnings, the consensus estimate sits at about USD 0.74 per share, up 8.8% from USD 0.68 in the prior-year period. Notably, that number matches the very top of the guidance range Walmart issued in May, which leaves little margin for a soft quarter.
Walmart has beaten consensus in three of the last four quarters and missed on the other occasion, according to estimate trackers. That record is why the market treats an in-line result as a mild disappointment rather than a clean pass.
There is a second reason the revenue line deserves attention. Consensus implies growth of about 5.3%, while guidance was framed in constant currency terms, so a weaker dollar can close part of that gap without a single extra unit being sold. Reported growth and constant currency growth diverge most in quarters when the international segment carries currency tailwinds.
Investors will therefore look past the headline revenue figure toward operating income growth, which the company guided to 7% to 10% in constant currency. Profit growing faster than sales is the entire premise of the current Walmart equity story, and it is the first thing tariffs threaten.
| Metric | Q2 FY2027 consensus | Company guidance (May 2026) | Q2 FY2026 comparison |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | About USD 186.77bn | Net sales +4% to 5% (constant currency) | About USD 177.40bn |
| Adjusted EPS | About USD 0.74 | USD 0.72 to USD 0.74 | USD 0.68 |
| Adjusted operating income | Growth in the high single digits | +7% to 10% (constant currency) | Not comparable on a stated basis |
| Full-year adjusted EPS | About USD 2.89 (FY27 consensus) | USD 2.75 to USD 2.85 | USD 2.64 (FY26) |
Why the full-year gap is the real story
The most revealing line in that table is the last one. Street consensus for fiscal 2027 earnings sits at roughly USD 2.89, which is above the USD 2.85 top end of the range Walmart reaffirmed in May.
In practice, that means analysts have already priced in a guidance raise. If Walmart delivers a solid quarter but leaves the full-year outlook untouched, the headline beat may not be enough to satisfy the models behind those estimates.
Estimates for fiscal 2028 currently sit near USD 3.27 per share, implying growth above 13%. Those forward numbers rest on the assumption that advertising, membership and marketplace fees keep compounding faster than the core retail business.
How do the new tariffs actually hit this quarter?
Three separate tariff regimes touch the reporting period, and they work in different directions. Understanding which is which is the difference between reading the gross margin line correctly and misreading it entirely.
The first is the Section 301 action on forced labor. The Office of the United States Trade Representative imposed additional duties of 10% or 12.5% on imports from 60 economies, effective at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time on July 24, 2026. The lower rate applies to economies that have imposed, committed to impose or partially implemented import restrictions on goods made with forced labor, while the higher rate applies to those that have not adopted such a prohibition.
By USTR’s own framing, the covered economies account for roughly 99% of US imports, with exemptions set out by tariff subheading in the action’s annexes. For a company that is among the largest US importers of containerized freight, a duty that broad cannot be sourced around inside a single quarter.
Breadth is what makes this action different from earlier country-specific measures. A duty aimed at one origin can be answered by moving production to another, but a duty applied across effectively the entire import base removes the substitution route and turns the question into one of pricing and absorption.
The rate split also creates an unusual sourcing incentive. Suppliers in economies that adopted or committed to forced labor import prohibitions face the 10% rate, while those that did not face 12.5%, which means compliance policy in a sourcing country now carries a measurable landed cost difference of 250 basis points.
The Canadian deadline that lands one day before the print
The second regime is newer and narrower. On July 20, 2026, three presidential proclamations invoked Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 to impose an additional 50% duty on a defined list of Canadian goods, effective at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time on August 19, 2026, absent a negotiated outcome inside the 30-day window.
The list runs well past the headline categories of motor vehicles, dairy and alcoholic beverages. Legal advisories describing the annexes list cement, furniture, textiles across Harmonized Tariff Schedule chapters 50 through 63, wood products, apparel and sporting goods, with USTR estimating coverage close to USD 20 billion of Canadian imports. Our earlier report on the 50% tariffs on Canadian goods taking effect August 19 sets out the category detail.
Two practical points matter for retail buyers. A valid USMCA certificate of origin does not exempt a covered good, and the duty applies to entries made on or after the effective time, which is why some importers have pulled forward shipments into July and early August.
The refund that is not in the guidance
The third regime is the one moving in retailers’ favor. On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court held 6-3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose tariffs, affirming an earlier federal appeals ruling.
Neither that decision nor the executive order revoking the IEEPA tariffs resolved refunds directly, and estimates of duties already collected under the authority run to roughly USD 175 billion. A US Court of International Trade order dated March 4, 2026 then directed Customs and Border Protection to issue refunds through normal administrative procedures rather than requiring case-by-case litigation.
Earnings previews published this month note that Walmart’s outlook, as of the May 21 update, does not assume any impact from IEEPA tariff refunds. If refunds land inside the fiscal year, they arrive as an unmodeled benefit rather than a guidance assumption.
The accounting treatment matters as much as the cash. Refunds of duties previously expensed through cost of sales would ordinarily flow back through the same line, which can flatter gross margin in the period they are recognized without indicating any improvement in the underlying merchandise business.
Analysts will therefore press for a clean split between recurring margin and one-off recovery. Companies that recognize large refunds without separating them tend to face a harder comparison in the following year, when the benefit does not repeat.
| Tariff regime | Status at the time of the print | Rate | Direction for retail margins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Section 301, forced labor | In force since July 24, 2026 | 10% or 12.5% on 60 economies | Negative, broad and immediate |
| Section 338, Canada | Effective August 19, 2026 | Additional 50% on listed goods | Negative, narrow but severe |
| IEEPA reciprocal tariffs | Struck down February 20, 2026 | Refunds being processed | Positive, timing uncertain |
| De minimis exemption | Suspended for all countries since August 2025 | Duty applies at any value | Negative for cross-border rivals |
Why does the de minimis change help Walmart?
The suspension of the USD 800 de minimis exemption removed the single largest structural advantage held by direct-from-China parcel sellers in the American market. Every shipment now enters through formal or informal customs entry and carries applicable duties and fees regardless of value.
The mechanics tightened further during 2026. Carriers could initially choose between a specific duty and an ad valorem method for postal shipments, but from late February 2026 only the ad valorem method has been permitted, which removes the flat-fee arbitrage that low-value senders relied on.
The European Union moved in the same direction on July 1, 2026, scrapping its EUR 150 customs duty exemption and applying an interim flat charge of EUR 3 per item on business-to-consumer imports from outside the bloc valued below that threshold.
The combined effect is a narrowing of the price gap that made direct-from-Asia parcels feel structurally cheaper to Western shoppers. Where a low-value order previously cleared customs without duty on either side of the Atlantic, it now carries a charge in both markets, and that charge is proportionally largest on the cheapest baskets.
For a domestic retailer with an owned distribution network, this is a competitive gift that offsets part of the tariff pain. The cost base rises for everyone, but it rises fastest for the operators whose entire pricing model was built on duty-free parcels, a shift already visible in the move from cross-border direct parcels toward US domestic fulfillment.
Has the profit engine changed enough to absorb the cost?
The strategic argument for Walmart over the past five years is that it stopped being purely a retailer of goods and started earning like a platform. The first quarter of fiscal 2027 gave that argument its clearest support yet.
Membership and other income rose 27% to USD 2.06 billion in the quarter, with membership fee income alone up 17.4%. Global advertising expanded by about 37%, and US advertising grew 36%, with the Walmart Connect business up 44% excluding VIZIO.
Those revenue streams carry materially higher margins than the average grocery basket. A quarter in which advertising and membership grow at three to five times the pace of total revenue mechanically lifts the mix, which is precisely the cushion management needs when landed costs rise.
The scale is still modest against total revenue. Membership and other income of USD 2.06 billion sits against total quarterly revenue approaching USD 178 billion, so the contribution works through margin rather than through the top line.
That is the correct way to read it. A business of this size does not need platform revenue to rival merchandise revenue, it needs enough high margin income to fund price investment in groceries while holding operating margin steady.
What to listen for on the call
The most useful disclosure will be how the company describes the split between cost absorption and price pass-through. Retailers rarely quantify this precisely, but the language used (“managing price gaps”, “investing in price”, “targeted price actions”) signals which lever is doing the work.
The second signal is inventory. First quarter inventory stood at USD 62.6 billion, up 8.9% year on year, which is faster than sales growth and consistent with pull-forward buying ahead of duty deadlines.
The third is capital spending discipline. Capital expenditure reached USD 6.7 billion in the first quarter, an increase of about USD 1.7 billion, and free cash flow was negative USD 1.9 billion against a positive USD 425 million a year earlier. Automation and fulfillment build-outs are the reason, and they connect directly to the labor decisions shaping holiday 2026 retail hiring.
What did the first quarter reveal about the consumer?
Walmart’s first quarter of fiscal 2027, reported on May 21, 2026, showed total revenue of USD 177.75 billion, up 7.3%, with net sales up 7.1% to USD 175.68 billion. Growth was led by e-commerce, advertising and membership rather than by the traditional store basket.
Underneath the headline, the detail was more cautious. Spend per visit grew only 1.1%, which suggests traffic and channel mix carried the quarter while the size of the average basket barely moved in real terms.
That pattern is consistent with a trade-down cycle. Higher income households shopping Walmart for groceries lift transaction counts, but they do not necessarily lift discretionary categories, and it is discretionary categories that carry the margin.
The second quarter tests whether that mix held through the back-to-school season, historically the year’s second largest discretionary event in US retail. Apparel, footwear and electronics all sit inside the categories most exposed to the new duty layers, which makes any commentary on general merchandise unusually informative.
The fuel line nobody modeled
The first quarter also carried a cost the market had stopped watching. Higher fuel costs across distribution and fulfillment reduced operating income growth by roughly 250 basis points, according to the company’s own reporting.
If fuel remained elevated through the second quarter, the same drag repeats. If it eased, the comparison flatters operating income without any improvement in the underlying retail business, and analysts will adjust for it quickly.
How does this fit into the wider retail earnings week?
August 20 does not stand alone. It closes a three-day sequence that gives the market a near-complete picture of US big-box demand, and each report is read against the one before it.
Home Depot opens the week on August 18, in unusual circumstances given the temporary leadership arrangement we covered when Home Depot’s chief executive took medical leave ahead of the print. Target follows on August 19, before the market opens.
Consensus for Target’s quarter points to revenue near USD 26.07 billion, with per-share estimates clustering between about USD 2.29 and USD 2.40 depending on the compiler, and comparable sales expectations near 3%. Market commentary published on August 10 noted the shares trading around USD 149.70 after a strong year to date run, which raises the bar for a positive reaction.
| Retailer | Report date | What the market is testing | Read-across for Walmart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home Depot | August 18, 2026 | Big-ticket home improvement demand and leadership continuity | Discretionary and housing-linked spending |
| Target | August 19, 2026 | Comparable sales near 3% and margin recovery | General merchandise and apparel pricing |
| Walmart | August 20, 2026 | Tariff pass-through, e-commerce profitability, guidance raise | The benchmark print for the sector |
What does the August 14 retail sales report change?
Six days before Walmart reports, the US Census Bureau publishes its advance monthly retail trade report for July. That release covers the same calendar period as most of Walmart’s quarter, which makes it an unusually direct preview.
A strong July number would suggest that consumers absorbed early tariff-driven price increases without cutting volume, which supports the case for a guidance raise. A weak number would reframe the same quarter as a share-gain story inside a shrinking pie.
Our preview of the July retail sales report landing on August 14 sets out the categories most exposed to the new duty layers, including furniture, apparel and building materials.
Why the sequencing helps traders more than retailers
For operators, the Census print is a lagging confirmation of what they already see in their own point-of-sale data. For the market, it is the last macro input before three of the biggest US retailers report in succession.
That asymmetry explains why retail equities often move more on the macro release than on individual results during this specific week of the calendar.
What should marketplace sellers watch in this print?
Walmart Marketplace sellers have a different set of interests from equity investors. The relevant lines are marketplace growth, fulfillment services adoption and advertising cost inflation, not adjusted EPS.
Marketplace expansion tends to show up indirectly, through commentary on assortment growth and third-party seller counts. When advertising revenue grows near 37% while marketplace unit growth is slower, the practical translation is that cost per click is rising for existing sellers.
The second thing to watch is fulfillment. Walmart Fulfillment Services capacity determines how much of the marketplace catalog can offer competitive delivery promises, and capacity commentary usually accompanies the capital spending discussion.
Capital spending of USD 6.7 billion in a single quarter, up about USD 1.7 billion year on year, is the clearest evidence of where the company expects volume to go. Automation investment on that scale is a bet that delivery density and throughput, not store count, decide the next phase of market share.
The third is category mix. If management flags strength in grocery and consumables while general merchandise stays soft, third-party sellers concentrated in discretionary categories should expect continued price pressure through the holiday quarter, a dynamic also visible in Kroger’s marketplace pivot.
What are the main risks to the setup?
The first risk is valuation. Commentary published on August 10 put the shares near USD 111.78 on a trailing price to earnings multiple of about 39.2 times, which is a premium rating for a business guiding to mid-single-digit sales growth.
The second is the consensus itself. With 39 analysts tracked in one widely used compilation, 29 rated the stock at strong buy, six at moderate buy and four at hold, with an average price target near USD 140.08. Positioning that one-sided leaves limited room for upside surprise in the reaction, whatever the numbers say.
The third is relative performance. The shares rose about 13.3% over the trailing 52 weeks measured in late July, trailing the S&P 500’s 16.5% gain over the same window, which suggests the market has already discounted part of the tariff pressure.
A fourth risk is less discussed. Guidance issued in May predates both the July 24 forced labor duties and the July 20 Canadian proclamations, so the outlook the market is measuring this print against was built on a materially different tariff map than the one now in force.
The scenario that would genuinely surprise
A raise to full-year adjusted EPS guidance above the current USD 2.85 ceiling, combined with an explicit statement that tariff costs are being recovered through mix rather than price, would be the most bullish credible outcome.
The bearish mirror image is a maintained outlook accompanied by cautious language on the second half, which would tell the market that the August 19 Canadian duties and the July 24 forced labor duties are compounding faster than the advertising and membership businesses can offset.
How should retail operators read the result?
Walmart’s print functions as an industry benchmark because its scale forces it to reveal what smaller operators can hide. If the largest US importer of containers cannot fully offset the new duty layers, few others can.
The practical takeaway for buyers and merchandisers is to treat Walmart’s price commentary as a forward indicator for shelf prices in grocery and consumables through the holiday quarter. Where Walmart holds price, competitors face a margin choice rather than a pricing choice.
The takeaway for logistics teams is narrower. Inventory up 8.9% against slower sales growth is the signature of pull-forward buying, and pull-forward buying is followed by either promotional clearance or warehouse cost inflation, and often by both.
Frequently asked questions
When exactly does Walmart report Q2 FY2027 results?
Walmart reports on Thursday, August 20, 2026. According to its investor relations event listing, quarterly materials are posted at approximately 6 a.m. CT and the conference call with the investment community begins at 7 a.m. CT, with a webcast replay available afterwards.
What period does the second quarter cover?
Walmart’s fiscal year ends in late January, so the second quarter of fiscal 2027 covers the three months to July 31, 2026. That window includes back-to-school buying and the first week of the Section 301 forced labor duties that took effect on July 24, 2026.
What are analysts expecting?
Consensus points to revenue of about USD 186.77 billion against roughly USD 177.40 billion a year earlier, and adjusted earnings near USD 0.74 per share versus USD 0.68. Company guidance issued in May called for constant currency net sales growth of 4% to 5% and adjusted EPS of USD 0.72 to USD 0.74.
How much do the new tariffs cost Walmart?
The company has not published a specific figure for the second quarter. What is known is that the Section 301 action applies additional duties of 10% or 12.5% to imports from 60 economies covering roughly 99% of US imports, with exemptions listed by tariff subheading, and that Walmart is among the largest US importers of containerized goods.
Do the 50% Canadian tariffs affect this quarter?
Not directly. Those duties take effect on August 19, 2026, after the quarter closed, so they belong to the third quarter and to the outlook commentary. They matter to the print mainly through what management says about second-half costs.
Could tariff refunds boost Walmart’s results?
Potentially, but not as a guidance assumption. After the Supreme Court ruled in February 2026 that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs, a Court of International Trade order in March directed Customs and Border Protection to process refunds administratively. Previews note that Walmart’s outlook does not assume any impact from those refunds.
Why does the August 14 retail sales report matter for this print?
The Census Bureau’s advance report for July covers most of the same calendar period as Walmart’s quarter. It gives the market an early read on whether consumers absorbed tariff-driven price increases without cutting purchase volumes.
How does Walmart compare with Target this quarter?
Target reports on August 19, one day earlier, with consensus revenue near USD 26.07 billion and comparable sales expectations around 3%. Target is more exposed to discretionary general merchandise, which makes it the more sensitive read on tariff pass-through in apparel and home categories.
What would count as a genuine positive surprise?
A raise to the full-year adjusted EPS range above USD 2.85, given that Street estimates already sit near USD 2.89 for fiscal 2027. Meeting guidance without raising it would leave consensus models above the company’s own stated outlook.