Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected in Washington next week for a state visit that puts the US-China tariff truce, a delayed 7.5 percent duty on Chinese goods and a USD 30 billion tariff-reduction framework on the same table, five weeks before the truce expires and six weeks before the US midterm elections. For retailers that source in China, the September 24 summit is the last scheduled political event before holiday pricing locks in.
The meeting is widely expected, but not yet formally confirmed by Beijing. Euronews reports that Xi is scheduled to arrive on Wednesday, September 23 and depart on Friday, September 25, and that final confirmation is pending a weekend meeting between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. AFP reports the summit itself is expected on September 24.
In short
- Date and format: Xi is expected to arrive in Washington on September 23 for a state visit with a White House summit on September 24, his first visit to the US capital since 2015, according to Euronews and AFP. Beijing has not issued final confirmation.
- The truce clock: the Busan trade truce of October 30, 2025 runs for one year and expires in November. China wants it extended through the end of the Trump administration; Washington has offered six months, the Financial Times has reported. CSIS analysts expect a compromise near one year.
- The tariff threat on hold: Bloomberg reports the US will hold off announcing new Section 301 excess-capacity tariffs until after the summit. The pending report was expected to recommend a 7.5 percent duty on Chinese goods, restoring second-term US duties on China to about 20 percent.
- What retailers pay now: the effective US tariff rate on Chinese imports was 22.8 percent as of July, the highest for any major trading partner, per the Penn Wharton Budget Model cited by AFP. China charges 10 percent on all US goods.
- The upside case: Beijing and Washington are consulting on a framework to cut tariffs on USD 30 billion of goods on each side, agreed in principle at the May Beijing summit, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce as reported by Nikkei Asia and AFP.
When is the Trump-Xi summit and what is actually confirmed?
The visit is the return leg of a two-summit year. President Donald Trump traveled to Beijing in May 2026, and Xi is now expected to make the reciprocal trip. Euronews reports that Xi is scheduled to arrive next Wednesday and depart on Friday with his wife, Peng Liyuan, and that he will skip the UN General Assembly in New York entirely. AFP puts the summit itself on September 24.
Two caveats matter for anyone planning around the date. First, Beijing has not given final confirmation, according to Euronews, which reports that the go-ahead depends on the Bessent-He Lifeng meeting this weekend. The Financial Times reported on September 15 that the two officials would meet in New York. Second, the White House has not published a detailed program beyond the state dinner Trump has said he will host.
That dinner is itself unusual. Euronews reports it will be held under a tent on the White House lawn because the new ballroom is unfinished, and that OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, Qualcomm’s Cristiano Amon and Apple executive chairman Tim Cook are expected to attend, citing Politico. CNBC separately confirmed Altman’s attendance on September 16. Xi is reportedly bringing a business delegation of his own, with BYD’s leadership among the names rumored, according to CSIS’s Scott Kennedy as quoted by Euronews.
Why a Washington visit is different from Busan or Beijing
The two leaders met in Busan, South Korea in October 2025 and in Beijing in May 2026. Both of those were working meetings attached to wider trips. A state visit to Washington carries a different set of expectations: signing ceremonies, a published list of deliverables and, in this case, a domestic political calendar that runs straight into the November midterms. “The visit is the message,” Edgard Kagan, senior adviser in China studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Euronews, while noting “a surprising lack of signalling by either the White House or the PRC on major goals for the visit.”
Bloomberg notes the trip would be Xi’s first to the United States since November 2023, when he met then-President Joe Biden alongside the APEC summit in San Francisco. AFP describes it as his first visit to Washington in 11 years.
What tariffs do US retailers pay on Chinese goods right now?
The headline rates of April 2025, when the base US tariff on Chinese goods reached 145 percent and China retaliated at 125 percent, are long gone. What replaced them is a patchwork of statutory measures rather than one number. According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, cited by AFP, the effective US tariff rate on imports from China, averaged across all goods, stood at 22.8 percent as of July 2026, the highest of any major US trading partner. Among the highest effective rates on Chinese goods is 40.5 percent on steel and aluminum.
The composition matters because it determines what the summit can and cannot change. The IEEPA “reciprocal” and fentanyl tariffs that formed the core of the 2025 escalation were struck down by the Supreme Court earlier this year in Learning Resources v. United States, and Customs and Border Protection is now refunding them. Importers with the oldest entries are waiting on CAPE Phase 3 refunds that open on October 6, twelve days after the summit. What remains in force on Chinese goods is built on older statutes that the president cannot switch off with a handshake.
| Layer | Legal basis | Rate on Chinese goods | Status in September 2026 | Can the summit change it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legacy China tariffs (Lists 1–4, 2024 increases) | Section 301, Trade Act of 1974 | 7.5% to 25% on most lists; higher on EVs, chips and solar under 2024 actions | In force since 2018–2019 | Only through a negotiated exclusion or reduction process; this is where the USD 30bn framework would operate |
| Steel, aluminum, autos and derivatives | Section 232 | Effective 40.5% on steel and aluminum per Penn Wharton | In force | Unlikely; applied globally, not China-specific |
| Forced-labor surcharge | Section 301 (2026 action on 60 economies) | 10% or 12.5% above MFN | In force since July 24; challenged at the Court of International Trade | Not on the summit agenda; court hearing September 30 |
| Excess-capacity tariff | Section 301 (investigation opened March 2026) | 7.5% recommended, per Bloomberg | Announcement delayed until after the summit | Yes: the delay itself is a negotiating lever |
| IEEPA reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs | IEEPA | Formerly 10% + 10% under the truce | Struck down; refunds in progress via CAPE | No: already void |
China’s side of the ledger is simpler. AFP reports that Beijing still imposes a 10 percent tariff on all US goods, with extra duties in certain sectors such as 15 percent on liquefied natural gas. Trade has kept growing regardless: Chinese customs data cited by AFP shows total bilateral trade of USD 400.8 billion from January to August 2026, up 5.4 percent on the same period of 2025, with Chinese exports making up 75 percent of the total.
Why the forced-labor surcharge is the bigger line item for retailers
For a general-merchandise importer, the 10 to 12.5 percent Section 301 forced-labor duty that took effect on July 24 is now the largest China-related surcharge that is actually being collected on most consumer goods, since the IEEPA layer has gone. It is not on the summit agenda, but its fate is being decided in the same fortnight: the trade court hears the consolidated challenge to the forced-labor tariffs on September 30, six days after the Trump-Xi meeting. The amici in that case, including the drafters of Section 301, argue the duties are a “thinly disguised pretext” for reimposing the IEEPA tariffs the Supreme Court struck down.
What is the truce, and why does its expiry date matter?
The central deliverable, according to every preview published this week, is the extension of the truce struck in Busan on October 30, 2025. Euronews describes the core of that deal as Washington suspending its Affiliates Rule, the export-control measure that extended US entity-list restrictions to majority-owned subsidiaries, in exchange for continued Chinese exports of rare earths and critical minerals. Bloomberg describes it as Beijing guaranteeing flows of rare earths in exchange for reduced US tariffs, and says the deal is set to expire in November.
The two sides do not agree on how long the next version should run. “The Chinese have wanted an agreement to extend the trade ceasefire through the end of the Trump administration,” Scott Kennedy, trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at CSIS, told Euronews. “The Trump administration just wants to extend it for a few months to maintain leverage on China. I think they’ll end up somewhere in the middle, probably at about a year.” Bloomberg, citing the Financial Times, reports the US is offering only a six-month extension, and that Washington believes Beijing has not fully delivered on the rare-earth commitments it made in Busan.
Three truce scenarios and what each does to a 2027 sourcing plan
| Scenario | Truce length | Excess-capacity tariff | Rare-earth flows | Implication for retail buyers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short extension (US opening position) | 6 months, to roughly May 2027 | Announced after the summit, likely at or near 7.5% | Continued but contested | Spring 2027 orders face another cliff; expect front-loading in Q1 and heavier use of Vietnam, Mexico and India alternatives |
| Compromise (CSIS base case) | About 12 months, to late 2027 | Announced but calibrated to keep total China duties near 20% | Stabilized, with Japan flows part of the deal | Landed-cost planning for holiday 2027 becomes possible; no relief on legacy Section 301 lists |
| Long extension (Beijing’s ask) | Through January 2029 | Deferred or folded into the USD 30bn framework | Guaranteed | Best case for importers, but Bloomberg notes Washington wants to keep the threat as leverage, making this the least likely outcome |
The reason a six-month gap matters so much is the ordering calendar. Holiday 2026 goods are already landed: the National Retail Federation lifted its September import forecast to 2.31 million TEU, the busiest month of the year, and West Coast ports set records over the summer. A truce that expires in May 2027 would fall exactly when spring and back-to-school orders for 2027 are being priced, which is the same trap importers walked into with the original November 2026 expiry.
Why rare earths and the Affiliates Rule matter to consumer electronics retail
The Busan truce was, at its core, a swap of export controls: Washington paused the Affiliates Rule, and Beijing paused the rare-earth export restrictions it had announced in October 2025. AFP notes that this was the lever that pushed Washington to back down from its steepest tariffs last year, because China dominates rare-earth processing and the minerals sit inside most high-tech products.
The flow has not fully normalized. Bloomberg, citing Nikkei, reports that the Trump administration has been asking China to boost exports of critical minerals to Japan to avoid disruptions to global supply chains, and that volumes of magnets shipped to Japan have slumped in recent months after relations soured following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks about Taiwan. Shipments to the US have climbed but remain short of their level before Trump’s return to the White House. Washington is also hedging: the Pentagon announced this week that it will take a stake of almost 20 percent in a US tungsten producer, Bloomberg reports.
For retailers, the practical exposure sits in the categories that carry magnets and specialty metals: power tools, small appliances, audio, e-bikes and anything with a compact motor. Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets, wrote in a note quoted by Bloomberg that any easing by Beijing on export restrictions could help downstream manufacturers while reducing some of the scarcity premium in alternative suppliers. That premium is currently being paid somewhere in the bill of materials of a large share of the goods on US shelves, whether or not the retailer can see it.
What is the excess-capacity tariff and why has it been delayed?
Bloomberg reported on September 17, citing people familiar with the matter, that the US is expected to hold off announcing new tariffs on China and other trading partners until after the summit, “a delay that could preserve such a threat as leverage in the negotiations.” Inside US Trade first reported the postponement; Yonhap and Seeking Alpha carried the same account. The Office of the US Trade Representative and the White House did not respond to Bloomberg’s requests for comment.
The tariff in question comes out of a Section 301 investigation the administration launched in March 2026 into more than a dozen major trading partners over alleged excess industrial capacity. According to Bloomberg’s earlier reporting, the resulting report was expected to recommend a 7.5 percent tariff on Chinese goods. Stacked on the existing forced-labor surcharge, that would restore Trump’s second-term duties on China to around 20 percent, a level Beijing has previously said is consistent with the truce. Bloomberg adds that it is uncertain whether the final rate will change from that expected level.
Beijing has already drawn its line. “Capacity issues should be viewed in a comprehensive and fair manner, and should not be used as a pretext for protectionism,” Huang Ling, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Commerce, said in late August, according to Bloomberg. “We will continue to closely follow and comprehensively assess subsequent US moves, and reserve the right to take all necessary measures.” China has also signaled it could act if US tariffs exceed the levels prevailing when the truce was struck.
Why 7.5 percent is not a small number for a general-merchandise importer
On a container of goods with a declared value of USD 100,000, a 7.5 percent Section 301 surcharge is USD 7,500 in additional duty per entry, before broker fees and bonding. For a retailer running gross margins in the low 30s on imported hardlines, that is roughly a quarter of the gross profit on the container unless it is passed through. The reason the excess-capacity duty is structured at 7.5 percent, rather than higher, is that Washington and Beijing appear to have converged on 20 percent as the “truce-consistent” total for second-term China duties, which is exactly where the two IEEPA layers sat before the Supreme Court removed them. In other words, the administration is rebuilding the same wall with different bricks, and the summit decides how quickly it lays the last course.
Where does the USD 30 billion tariff-cut framework stand?
The one deliverable that would actually lower costs for importers is the tariff-reduction framework agreed at the May summit in Beijing. AFP reports that China’s commerce ministry said last week the two sides were discussing a framework to cut tariffs on USD 30 billion worth of products each, and that the goal was agreed when Xi and Trump met in May, alongside the creation of trade and investment councils to manage disputes. Nikkei Asia reports the ministry said the two sides had “agreed in principle” to negotiate the framework under a planned Board of Trade.
The two capitals read the same number differently. According to CSIS’s Kagan, quoted by Euronews, the Chinese anticipate an announcement of around USD 30 billion (about EUR 26 billion) in duty-free or low-tariff imports in return for fulfilling the purchase commitments they made in May, while Washington believes it will extract further purchases in return. Deals on agriculture and aircraft are likely, possibly with signing ceremonies, and Trump has previously hinted that Boeing could feature.
What USD 30 billion each way would and would not cover
Thirty billion dollars is about 7.5 percent of the USD 400.8 billion in bilateral trade recorded in the first eight months of 2026. On the US import side, the product list has not been published, and neither government has said whether consumer goods are in scope. The pattern from the 2020 Phase One deal and the 2025 truce is that US-side concessions cluster in industrial inputs and agriculture rather than finished consumer products, and the Chinese-side purchases cluster in soybeans, energy and aircraft. Retail buyers should treat the framework as a signal of direction rather than a line item for their 2027 cost model until a Federal Register notice names tariff lines.
What does the summit mean for Temu, Shein and low-value parcels?
The cross-border marketplaces are the most visible casualties and the most visible survivors of the 2025 tariff war, and they sit outside the summit’s main agenda. The de minimis exemption for Chinese parcels ended in 2025, and Congress has since written a global repeal into law: ArentFox Schiff’s September customs roundup lists the statutory repeal under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act as effective July 1, 2027. No extension of the truce reverses that.
Yet the traffic came back. Sherwood News reported in May, citing Similarweb data, that monthly visits to temu.com had broadly returned to pre-tariff levels in the US, reaching close to a record high before stabilizing at an estimated 353 million visits in April. Temu did it by changing its model rather than its prices alone: recruiting US sellers, pushing overseas manufacturers to ship inventory in bulk to US warehouses, restoring direct-from-China shipping and cutting some prices by up to 60 percent, according to Sherwood. The cost showed up in margins, with PDD Holdings ADRs down 24 percent in 2026 as of late May.
Europe is running the same experiment with a different tool. The EU’s EUR 3 flat duty halved low-value parcel declarations in Belgium and the Netherlands within weeks, and the European Parliament has now adopted the recast Union Customs Code that makes platforms the deemed importer. The lesson for the Washington summit is that neither side is negotiating over parcels anymore; the low-value channel has already been re-engineered into bulk import, and bulk import is exactly where the Section 301 stack bites.
How does the summit fit the holiday and midterm calendar?
The political timing is not incidental. Euronews reports that Trump faces midterms in November that will be fought on the cost of living, with diesel above USD 6 a gallon and inflation stuck at 3.4 percent, and that he “needs wins that show up in prices.” Bloomberg reported this week that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to curb inflation, drawing a rebuke from the president. AFP adds that global oil prices have jumped after renewed fighting in the US war with Iran, and that the administration wants to ease concerns about the economy before the election.
Beijing has its own reasons to want a deal. Euronews reports that Chinese retail sales grew just 0.4 percent in August, fixed-asset investment contracted 7.2 percent in the first eight months of 2026, and the government injected 360 billion yuan (about USD 54 billion at current rates, or EUR 46 billion) into state banks and insurers to keep credit flowing. The official growth target of 4.5 to 5 percent is the lowest in decades, and Kennedy told Euronews that even that figure flatters the reality: “it’s growing very, very slowly, not 5% or anywhere close to it.”
For US retailers, the relevant calendar is the one below. The summit lands after the import peak but before the refund cash, the tariff court date and the two big October shopping events.
| Date | Event | Why it matters for retail | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 19–20 | Bessent and He Lifeng meet in New York | Final confirmation of the visit and the deliverables list | Euronews, FT |
| September 23 | Xi expected to arrive in Washington | Start of the state visit | Euronews |
| September 24 | Trump-Xi summit and state dinner | Truce extension, USD 30bn framework, purchase deals | AFP, Euronews |
| September 25 | Xi expected to depart | Post-summit tariff announcements become possible | Euronews |
| September 29 | Section 338 import bans on Canadian alcohol and other goods take effect | Separate North American tariff front stays live | ArentFox Schiff |
| September 30 | Court of International Trade hears the Section 301 forced-labor cases | The 10–12.5% surcharge on most imports is on the line | Court docket |
| October 6 | CBP opens CAPE Phase 3 IEEPA refunds; Amazon Prime Big Deal Days begin | Refund cash meets the first big October promotion | CBP declaration; Amazon |
| November 3 | US midterm elections | The political deadline behind the deliverables | Public calendar |
| November (date per truce text) | Busan truce expires without extension | Rare-earth and Affiliates Rule suspensions lapse | Bloomberg, Euronews |
| July 1, 2027 | Statutory de minimis repeal takes effect | End of the low-value parcel channel for all origins | ArentFox Schiff |
Which retailers have the most riding on the outcome?
The cleanest public measure of China tariff exposure is the money the government is now handing back. The IEEPA refund disclosures compiled by Marketplace and Forbes, and reported by shopappy earlier this week, show Walmart with about USD 2.9 billion in refunds, Apple about USD 2.2 billion, Target and Nike close to USD 1 billion each, Costco about USD 800 million returned to members through prices, and Macy’s USD 116 million. Those figures are a proxy for how much of each company’s import bill sat in the tariff layers that were struck down, and therefore how much sits in the layers that are still standing.
| Company | Disclosed IEEPA refund | Stated use of the cash | What a truce extension changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart | about USD 2.9bn | Lower prices and value, per company statements | Stable China duties support the price-investment strategy into 2027 |
| Apple | about USD 2.2bn | Not specified as a consumer program | Rare-earth flows and Affiliates Rule suspension matter more than the tariff rate |
| Target | close to USD 1bn | Value and price investment | Heaviest general-merchandise China exposure among the large box chains |
| Nike | close to USD 1bn | Not specified | Footwear sourcing already diversified; watches the forced-labor case more than the summit |
| Costco | about USD 800m to members | Returned through prices | Reports Q4 results on September 24, the same day as the summit |
| Temu (PDD) and Shein | Not disclosed | n/a | Bulk-import model now carries the Section 301 stack directly; parcel channel closes in 2027 regardless |
There is a second-order effect that matters for the fourth quarter. Bain’s forecast of the first USD 1 trillion US holiday season rests on inflation carrying nominal growth, and the refund cash arriving in Q4 gives the largest importers room to fund discounts. A summit that stabilizes duties removes the downside case in which retailers hold that cash back as a reserve against a January tariff shock. A summit that ends with a six-month truce and a 7.5 percent announcement in October does the opposite.
What else is on the agenda that could derail the trade outcome?
Trade is the main event, but the previews are unanimous that the geopolitical items could crowd it out. AFP describes China’s economic and diplomatic support for Iran as a major point of contention, and reports that the Wall Street Journal has said Chinese entities supplied Iran with satellite images of a military base in Jordan that hosts US troops. Euronews notes that Washington launched Operation Economic Outcast in August to sever Tehran from the global financial system, and that China remains Iran’s largest trading partner, though Kagan observes Beijing has been buying more oil on the open market, reflecting reduced purchases from Iran.
Taiwan sits underneath everything. Euronews reports that a USD 14 billion arms package for Taiwan was pre-approved by Congress in January but has not been formally notified, a delay interpreted as an attempt to avoid an irritant before this summit and, previously, before Trump’s May visit to China. Beijing wants the freeze extended. Technology competition is the third strand: AFP reports the US government last week accused Chinese AI labs of stealing US capabilities on an “industrial scale,” while Euronews describes a state-dinner guest list drawn from the AI industry and an argument within that industry over how fast to move.
Trump told reporters on Sunday that he would discuss “almost everything” with Xi, according to AFP. Dan Wang, a director on Eurasia Group’s China team, told AFP that tariffs are nonetheless “the main issue on the agenda” and that “Xi wouldn’t go if there were no deliverables on tariffs or a trade truce.” Her read on leverage is blunt: “China still has the upper hand” going into the talks, because its supply chains are “very flexible” and tariffs have not significantly slowed its record export boom.
What should importers and retail buyers do before September 24?
The summit will not change any tariff rate on the day. Section 301 actions require Federal Register notices; tariff reductions under the USD 30 billion framework require a published product list; and the forced-labor duties are in the hands of a court. What the summit does is fix the range of outcomes for the next six to twelve months, and the preparation is the same under every scenario.
- Map exposure by statute, not by country. Separate the legacy Section 301 lists, the forced-labor surcharge and the Section 232 metals duties in the landed-cost model. Only the first is realistically in scope for the USD 30 billion framework.
- Treat the excess-capacity tariff as a Q4 event. Bloomberg’s reporting implies an announcement after September 25. Build the 7.5 percent case into spring 2027 purchase orders now and treat anything lower as upside.
- Keep the refund paperwork moving. CAPE Phase 3 opens October 6 for finally liquidated entries, and eligibility depends on the plaintiff case, not the entry. The same discipline will apply if the forced-labor duties are later ordered refunded.
- Watch the truce length, not the handshake. A six-month extension puts the next cliff in the middle of spring 2027 ordering. A twelve-month extension pushes it past holiday 2027 planning. That single number is worth more to a buying calendar than the headline purchase deals.
- Read the Chinese-side list. If the USD 30 billion framework is published with product lines, the US-side reductions tell importers where relief lands; the Chinese-side reductions tell exporters, including US brands selling into China, where demand may open.
Frequently asked questions
When exactly is the Trump-Xi summit in Washington?
AFP reports the summit is expected on Thursday, September 24, 2026. Euronews reports Xi is scheduled to arrive on September 23 and depart on September 25, and that Beijing’s final confirmation depends on a weekend meeting between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng.
Is this the first Trump-Xi meeting of 2026?
No. Trump visited Beijing in May 2026, where the two sides agreed in principle on a USD 30 billion tariff-reduction framework and on trade and investment councils, according to AFP and Nikkei Asia. The Washington visit is the return leg and Xi’s first trip to the US capital since 2015.
What is the US-China trade truce and when does it expire?
The truce was struck in Busan, South Korea on October 30, 2025. It suspended the US Affiliates Rule in exchange for continued Chinese exports of rare earths and critical minerals, according to Euronews, and it runs for one year, expiring in November 2026, per Bloomberg. Extending it is the summit’s central deliverable.
How much tariff do US importers currently pay on Chinese goods?
The effective US tariff rate on imports from China was 22.8 percent as of July 2026, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model cited by AFP, with an effective 40.5 percent on steel and aluminum. The IEEPA tariffs were struck down by the Supreme Court and are being refunded; the remaining duties come from Section 301 and Section 232.
What is the excess-capacity tariff and when will it be announced?
It is a proposed Section 301 duty arising from an investigation the administration opened in March 2026 into more than a dozen trading partners. Bloomberg reports the report was expected to recommend 7.5 percent on Chinese goods and that the announcement has been delayed until after the summit. No new date has been given.
Will the summit lower prices for US shoppers this holiday season?
Not directly. Holiday 2026 inventory is already imported at current duty rates, and any tariff cut under the USD 30 billion framework requires a published product list and formal notice. The nearer-term price effect comes from IEEPA refunds, which retailers including Walmart, Target and Costco have said they are passing through.
Does the summit affect Temu and Shein?
Only indirectly. The de minimis exemption for Chinese parcels ended in 2025 and a statutory global repeal takes effect July 1, 2027 regardless of the summit. Both platforms have shifted to bulk imports into US warehouses, which means they now pay the same Section 301 stack as other importers and benefit from any truce-driven stability in the same way.
Who is attending the state dinner?
Euronews, citing Politico, reports that OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, Qualcomm’s Cristiano Amon and Apple executive chairman Tim Cook are expected. CNBC confirmed Altman’s attendance. The dinner is to be held under a tent on the White House lawn because the new ballroom is unfinished.
What happens if the two sides fail to extend the truce?
The suspensions on both sides would lapse in November: the US Affiliates Rule would come back into force and China’s rare-earth export restrictions could resume. Bloomberg reports China has also signaled it could act if US tariffs exceed the levels prevailing when the truce was struck, which would put the 7.5 percent excess-capacity duty at the center of any escalation.