Temu and Shein: 2026 is the year the bill finally lands
The US killed de minimis, the EU is following, and safety rules are tightening. The cheap-parcel arbitrage behind Temu and Shein is running out of road.
International Trade
International trade, cross-border commerce, tariffs, customs, and global market dynamics.
CBP tariff refund rollout stumbles: 4.36m entries fail validation
US Customs and Border Protection’s bulk tariff refund rollout stumbled on July 3 as 4.36 million entries failed validation. More than $71bn in IEEPA duty refunds has been certified, but finally liquidated importers are being left out.
Why Kaspi’s super-app push into Turkey accelerates in H2 2026: 3 signals from Hepsiburada
Three signals observed in recent weeks (a CEO split, a Turkish banking license, and an 86% stake) point to Kaspi accelerating a super-app build at Hepsiburada. The likeliest window for the first regulated fintech proof points is H2 2026, before the Q3 earnings call.
Why Temu and Shein will pivot to EU local fulfillment before year-end: 3 regulatory deadlines
Three EU regulatory deadlines converge in the second half of 2026: the EUR 3 customs duty, mandatory product identifiers, and active DSA enforcement. The pattern suggests Temu and Shein will pivot to EU local fulfillment and raise prices on cheap imports before year-end.
Why Coupang’s next big international bet is likely deepening Japan, not a new country: 3 signals from the Taiwan playbook
Coupang’s Taiwan flywheel has crossed the demand-proof threshold, and its market-entry pattern points to Japan as the next capex magnet. The likely outcome: a deepened Japan footprint signalled by Q4 2026, not a brand-new country.
Why the EU’s July de minimis fee will not slow Temu and Shein: 3 signals
The EU scraps its low-value customs relief on July 1, 2026, but three recent signals suggest the fee will not slow Temu and Shein’s European growth this year. Expect adaptation through local fulfillment rather than retreat, with their EU growth likely still positive through Q3.
Belgium’s online spend hits €18.3bn: local shops miss the growth
Belgian shoppers spent a record €18.3bn online in 2025, up 5.4%, according to the Becom Market Monitor. Yet domestic webshops grew only 3.43%, barely above inflation, as Chinese platforms and foreign marketplaces absorbed most of the new spending.
Why Temu and Shein will localize EU fulfillment before July 1: 3 signals
The EU’s 1 July 2026 parcel duty is likely to accelerate, not reverse, Temu and Shein’s move to local EU fulfillment. Three signals point to majority local-warehouse shipping by year-end 2026.
India retail entry: Flipkart, Amazon.in and the rules
How foreign retailers enter India in 2026: the FDI rule that bans inventory ownership, Flipkart vs Amazon.in, and the GST and import basics you must price for.
Selling into the Gulf: noon and regional marketplaces
noon, Amazon.ae and category specialists route most online retail in the Gulf. The practical setup: entity, VAT, fulfillment and the margin math that decides the lane.