Grocery prices in Britain are rising a little faster again, and the supermarket league table has shifted in a way that matters for Christmas. Worldpanel by Numerator said on Tuesday 10 November 2026 that like-for-like grocery price inflation reached 2.6% in the four weeks to 1 November, up from 2.5% in September and 2.3% the month before. Over the same 12 weeks, Asda was the only major supermarket whose sales fell, while Lidl and the online grocer Ocado took the biggest gains.
The figures land at the start of retail’s golden quarter, a week after Asda replaced its executive chairman with a new chief executive, and three weeks after the government’s Be Ready campaign sent shoppers looking for bottled water and tinned food. This article sets out every number Worldpanel published, explains what the market share moves really mean, and looks at what UK shoppers can expect at the till between now and Christmas.
In short
- Grocery inflation 2.6%: like-for-like prices rose 2.6% year on year in the four weeks to 1 November, the third monthly rise in a row, according to Worldpanel by Numerator.
- Asda the only faller: Asda’s sales fell 0.5% to about £4bn in the 12 weeks to 1 November and its market share slipped from 11.6% to 11.3%, City AM reported from the Worldpanel data.
- Lidl and Ocado gain: Lidl’s sales rose 6.6%, lifting its share by 0.4 points to 8.6%, the largest gain of any grocer; Ocado grew 12.3% to £822m and reached a record 2.3% share.
- Be Ready, not panic buying: in the ten days after the campaign launched on 22 October, hand sanitiser sales rose 83%, bottled water 67% and tinned and jarred goods 37%, but Worldpanel says fewer than a third of households bought bottled water in October.
- Total market £35.94bn: take-home grocery sales grew 1.7% over 12 weeks and 2.2% over four weeks, slightly below the rate of inflation, which points to flat or falling volumes.
What did Worldpanel publish on 10 November?
Worldpanel by Numerator, the research company formerly known as Kantar Worldpanel, tracks the take-home grocery spending of a large panel of British households and publishes market shares every four weeks. Its latest release, issued at 08:00 GMT on Tuesday, covers the 12 weeks to 1 November 2026, with a separate inflation reading for the four weeks to the same date. The release was reported by City AM, Business Live, Sharecast, the Daily Express and Alliance News, among others.
The headline inflation figure was 2.6%. That measure compares the price of the same products a year apart, so it strips out shoppers switching to cheaper or more expensive lines. Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, said grocery price inflation “continued to increase after slowing over the summer” and that, while prices are rising at a slower rate than at the beginning of the year, “the direction of travel has changed”.
He linked the squeeze to household energy bills. “Household budgets have already taken a hit after the latest increase to the energy price cap arrived with the cold weather in October, and shoppers will be keeping a close eye on prices at the till this winter,” he said, according to Sharecast and Business Live.
Total take-home grocery sales over the 12 weeks reached £35.94bn, according to Alliance News, up 1.7% from £35.35bn a year earlier. Over the shorter four-week period, sales rose 2.2%.
For most readers, the release boils down to four figures. Prices are up 2.6% on a like-for-like basis. Spending is up 2.2% over four weeks and 1.7% over 12 weeks. Asda is the only big grocer going backwards. And Lidl and Ocado are growing several times faster than the market, at 6.6% and 12.3% respectively.
Everything else in the release, from pumpkins to hand sanitiser, sits around those four points. The rest of this article takes each in turn.
How did each UK supermarket perform?
The table below brings together the market shares and sales growth Worldpanel published for the 12 weeks to 1 November, as reported by Business Live, City AM, Sharecast and Alliance News. Where a publisher did not report the figure from a year earlier, the cell says so rather than guessing.
| Grocer | Share, 12 weeks to 1 Nov 2026 | Share a year earlier | Sales growth | 12-week sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesco | 27.8% | 27.9% | +1.2% | £9.99bn |
| Sainsbury’s | 15.5% | 15.6% | +0.8% | £5.56bn |
| Asda | 11.3% | 11.6% | −0.5% | about £4bn |
| Aldi | 10.4% | 10.5% | +0.4% | not reported |
| Lidl | 8.6% | 8.2% | +6.6% | not reported |
| Morrisons | 8.3% | not reported | +2.0% | not reported |
| Co-op | 5.3% | not reported | +0.7% | not reported |
| Waitrose | 4.5% | 4.4% | +2.2% | not reported |
| Ocado | 2.3% (record) | 2.1% | +12.3% | £822m |
| Iceland | not reported | not reported | flat | not reported |
| Total market | 100% | 100% | +1.7% | £35.94bn |
Sources: Worldpanel by Numerator figures as reported by Business Live, City AM, Sharecast and Alliance News, 10 November 2026. M&S is not included in the share table because of its large clothing and home business; its store grocery sales rose 14.6% over the same period.
Market share is a relative measure. With the whole market growing 1.7%, any grocer growing more slowly than that loses share even if its own sales are rising. That is why Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Aldi all slipped by 0.1 points despite selling more than a year ago, and why Co-op’s 0.7% rise is unlikely to have held its position, although no publisher reported its share from a year earlier.
According to Business Live, only three grocers grew their share year on year: Lidl, Ocado and Waitrose, the last edging up from 4.4% to 4.5% on the back of a 2.2% rise in sales. Morrisons grew 2.0%, “marginally ahead of the wider market”, and held an 8.3% share. Iceland was the only other chain apart from Asda not to grow, with sales described by City AM as flat.
The published figures also check out against each other. Taking 27.8% of £35.94bn gives about £9.99bn, which matches Tesco’s reported sales, and 2.3% gives about £827m against Ocado’s £822m, a difference explained by rounding of the share. On the same arithmetic, every 0.1 points of market share is worth roughly £36m of sales over 12 weeks.
Why is Asda the only big supermarket losing sales?
Asda’s sales fell 0.5% to about £4bn over the 12 weeks, and its share dropped from 11.6% to 11.3%, City AM reported. On the shopappy calculation above, a 0.3-point loss of share is equivalent to roughly £100m of sales over a 12-week period at the current size of the market, although Worldpanel itself does not express the change that way.
The decline is uncomfortable timing for the private equity-owned grocer. In August, Asda said like-for-like sales excluding fuel had risen 0.2% in the seven weeks to 18 August, its first positive figure in more than two years, and executive chairman Allan Leighton said the business was in the “foothills of recovery”. By mid-October the Worldpanel data were already showing that growth had faded, and the 10 November release confirms Asda is once again the weakest of the big grocers.
Our earlier report on Asda appointing former Morrisons boss David Potts as chief executive set out the leadership change that took effect on 3 November, with Leighton moving to a non-executive chairman role. Business Live noted that Potts “began his tenure with a market share of 11.3%”, and that more than half of all British households had shopped at Asda in stores or online over the past three months.
The debt question behind the share figures
Asda is owned by the private equity firm TDR Capital. According to City AM, it made a pre-tax loss of £989m in 2025, although its net debt fell by £500m to £3.1bn. Both Asda and Morrisons have been working to reduce large debt piles since their private equity takeovers, which limits how much each can spend on cutting prices without hurting cash flow.
That matters to shoppers because price is the lever most likely to win share back quickly. A supermarket carrying heavy debt has to balance price cuts against interest costs, and Asda’s rivals, particularly Lidl and Tesco, are in a stronger position to match any move it makes.
InternetRetailing, which reported the figures on Tuesday, said Asda has continued to invest in its proposition, including plans to roll out retail media capabilities through a partnership with Amazon Ad Services and an online grocery partnership with Ocado. Neither initiative is likely to show up in Worldpanel’s figures before Christmas.
Asda has not commented publicly on the Worldpanel release at the time of writing. Its next own trading figures, and any first statement of strategy from Potts, would be the next point at which the company’s view can be tested against the panel data.
Why are Lidl and Ocado winning?
Lidl’s sales rose 6.6% over the 12 weeks, the strongest growth among the traditional store-based grocers, and its market share increased by 0.4 percentage points to 8.6%, according to Business Live. That was the largest share gain of any retailer in the period. A month earlier, in the 12 weeks to early October, Worldpanel had reported Lidl’s sales up 7.1%, with 54% of British households shopping there over the period.
In October, McKevitt pointed to the discounter’s loyalty app as part of the story, saying Lidl had reported a 23% increase in Lidl Plus app users over the past year. The chain’s growth also comes as competition rules tighten around it: in October the CMA designated Aldi and Lidl as large grocery retailers, ending their freedom to use restrictive land covenants that the bigger chains have been barred from since 2010.
Ocado, the online-only grocer jointly owned by Ocado Group and M&S, grew sales 12.3% to £822m, taking a record 2.3% share, up from 2.1% a year ago. City AM described it as Ocado’s 30th consecutive period of double-digit growth. Separately, M&S increased grocery sales through its own stores by 14.6%, although Worldpanel excludes M&S from the share table because of its clothing mix.
The Aldi puzzle
Aldi, Britain’s fourth largest grocer, grew sales by only 0.4% and its share slipped from 10.5% to 10.4%. In the previous release, covering the 12 weeks to early October, its share had already slipped from 10.6% to 10.5%. Aldi has said it is focused on growing the volume of goods it sells rather than headline sales, as it tries to keep prices down for shoppers, according to City AM.
That strategy can show up as weak value growth in a period of rising prices, since a discounter that holds prices down will see its sales grow more slowly than a rival that passes increases on. It does not necessarily mean fewer shoppers, but the panel figures published so far do not separate the two effects.
How have the market shares moved since October?
Because Worldpanel publishes rolling 12-week figures every four weeks, consecutive releases overlap by eight weeks and contain seasonal effects, which is why the year-on-year comparison inside each release is the meaningful one. Even so, placing the October and November readings side by side shows which trends are holding.
| Grocer | 12 weeks to early Oct 2026 | A year earlier | 12 weeks to 1 Nov 2026 | A year earlier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesco | 27.8% | 27.9% | 27.8% | 27.9% |
| Sainsbury’s | 15.2% | 15.3% | 15.5% | 15.6% |
| Asda | 11.5% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 11.6% |
| Aldi | 10.5% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 10.5% |
| Lidl | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% |
| Morrisons | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | not reported |
Sources: Worldpanel by Numerator via City AM (13 October 2026) and Business Live, City AM and Alliance News (10 November 2026).
Two patterns stand out. Asda has lost 0.3 points year on year in both releases, so the November figure is a continuation rather than a one-off. Lidl has gained 0.4 points in both, and is now just 1.8 points behind Aldi, the larger discounter it has been chasing.
Tesco is stable at 27.8%, losing 0.1 points a year in each reading while still growing sales. Sainsbury’s appears to have a higher share in the November window than in October, but its year-on-year movement is the same 0.1-point dip in both, which suggests the rise between releases reflects the calendar rather than a change in trend.
Why is grocery inflation rising again?
Worldpanel’s like-for-like grocery inflation measure has now risen for three consecutive months, from 2.3% to 2.5% and now 2.6%. McKevitt described the change as a shift in “the direction of travel” after prices slowed over the summer, and tied the pressure on household budgets to the higher energy price cap that took effect in October.
The Worldpanel figure is one of several measures of food prices, and they do not move in lockstep. The British Retail Consortium’s Shop Price Monitor, compiled with NIQ, put food inflation at 2.9% in October, up from 2.5%, with ambient groceries such as tins, jars and packets jumping to 3.2%. Our report on UK shop price inflation reaching 2.1% in October explains how retailers had begun passing on energy, transport and ingredient costs they had been absorbing since the spring.
| Measure | Latest reading | Period | What it tracks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Worldpanel grocery price inflation | 2.6% | 4 weeks to 1 Nov 2026 | Like-for-like prices of the same products bought by a household panel |
| Worldpanel previous readings | 2.5%, 2.3% | September, August periods | As above |
| BRC-NIQ food inflation | 2.9% | October 2026 | Shop prices of a fixed basket collected from retailers |
| BRC-NIQ ambient food | 3.2% | October 2026 | Tins, jars and packets within the BRC basket |
| BRC-KPMG food sales growth | +3.2% | October 2026 | Value of food sales by BRC members, not a price measure |
| FDF food inflation forecast | 3.9% | By December 2026 | Manufacturers’ forecast, issued 9 September |
Sources: Worldpanel by Numerator via Sharecast and Alliance News; BRC-NIQ Shop Price Monitor (27 October); BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor (10 November); Food and Drink Federation (9 September).
Are shoppers buying less?
Over the four weeks to 1 November, grocery spending grew 2.2% while like-for-like prices rose 2.6%. If prices rose faster than spending, the volume of goods going through tills was probably flat or slightly down, by something in the order of 0.4%. That is a shopappy estimate rather than a Worldpanel figure, because the two measures are calculated differently and shoppers also trade down to cheaper own-label lines.
The 12-week sales growth of 1.7% is lower still, which suggests that once the Be Ready boost in late October is set aside, the underlying grocery market was soft through September and early October. That fits with the BRC-KPMG monitor, which described big-ticket shoppers as waiting for Black Friday.
What did the Be Ready campaign do to the weekly shop?
The Be Ready public awareness campaign, launched on 22 October, asks households to keep enough supplies to manage for up to three days if essential services are disrupted. Worldpanel measured the ten days after launch against the same period a year earlier. Our earlier report on how the Be Ready checklist sparked a wind-up radio sell-out covered the non-food side; the grocery figures now show the effect in supermarkets.
| Product or measure | Change | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Hand sanitiser sales | +83% | 10 days after 22 Oct launch, year on year |
| Bottled water sales | +67% | As above |
| Tinned and jarred goods sales | +37% | As above |
| Daily buyers of tinned meat | +43% (about 400,000 more a day) | Each day after launch |
| Typical tinned meat purchase | Unchanged at about 500g | After launch |
| Pumpkins sold | +10%, average price down 12% to £1.20 | Halloween period, year on year |
| Tubs of sugar confectionery | +28% | Year on year |
Source: Worldpanel by Numerator, as reported by Business Live, the Daily Express and Alliance News, 10 November 2026.
McKevitt was clear that this was not a repeat of the stockpiling seen in 2020. “Shoppers clearly took notice of the Be Ready campaign, but this wasn’t panic buying, with less than a third of households buying bottled water in October,” he said. “Growth came from more people adding the recommended items on the government’s checklist to their weekly shop, not from shoppers piling their trolleys high, which is very much in line with what the government wanted households to do.”
The tinned meat figure is the clearest evidence for that reading. Around 400,000 more people a day bought tinned meat after the launch, but the amount each bought stayed at roughly one standard pack. In other words, more households picked up one tin, rather than a few households buying dozens.
Did Be Ready push up prices?
Some headlines on Tuesday linked rising prices to the campaign. The Worldpanel figures do not support a direct link. The release presents the inflation rise and the Be Ready uplift as separate findings, and McKevitt attributed the price pressure to the cost background and the energy cap, not to demand for essentials. Increased demand for a handful of lines over ten days would also have only a small effect on a measure that covers the whole grocery basket over four weeks.
What does this mean for UK shoppers this Christmas?
For most households, the practical picture is modest but persistent price rises. A 2.6% inflation rate means a weekly shop that cost £100 a year ago would cost about £102.60 today for the same items, before any switching or offers. Over a typical 12-week period, that adds up for families already paying more for energy.
The market share figures suggest where shoppers are going in response. Lidl’s 6.6% growth and Aldi’s high household reach show the discounters remain the default destination for those trading down, while Ocado’s 12.3% growth and Waitrose’s 2.2% show that premium and online grocers are still holding their customers. The middle of the market, and Asda in particular, is where shoppers are drifting away.
- Check unit prices, not shelf prices. With pack sizes changing on some lines, the price per 100g or per item on the shelf edge label is the reliable comparison between brands and between stores.
- Use loyalty prices deliberately. Tesco Clubcard, Sainsbury’s Nectar and Lidl Plus prices can be significantly lower than the standard price, but only on selected lines; compare the loyalty price with a discounter’s normal price before assuming it is the cheapest.
- Do not stockpile for Be Ready. The official guidance asks for three days of supplies, built up gradually. Buying a few extra tins or bottles of water over several weekly shops avoids paying a premium or adding to short-term shortages.
- Plan Christmas food in two stages. Long-life items such as tins, jars, frozen goods and drinks can be bought now, spreading the cost, with fresh food left until the final week.
- Book delivery slots early if you shop online. Ocado’s growth shows demand for online grocery is rising, and the most popular December slots at the big grocers fill quickly once they are released.
What does it mean for independent grocers and convenience stores?
Worldpanel’s share table is dominated by the big chains, but its figures matter for independent shops too. Co-op, the largest convenience operator in the table, grew sales by just 0.7%, well below the market’s 1.7%, which suggests convenience formats are not the main beneficiaries of the current switching. That is consistent with shoppers doing more planned, larger shops at discounters when budgets are tight.
The Be Ready uplift is a rare opportunity for local shops, though. Tinned food, bottled water, batteries and hand sanitiser are exactly the kind of top-up purchases a convenience store or independent grocer can stock without large investment. Worldpanel’s finding that growth came from more households buying a single item, rather than a few buying in bulk, favours a shop that customers pass every day.
For independents setting prices, rising input costs are the bigger concern. The BRC’s October figures showed ambient groceries rising faster than fresh food, and those are the products that make up much of a convenience store’s range. Independents buying through wholesalers can see cost increases arrive sooner than the big chains, which negotiate directly with suppliers and can hold prices for longer.
What happens next, and when is the next Worldpanel release?
Worldpanel publishes its grocery market figures every four weeks. On that cycle, the next release, covering the 12 weeks to late November and including the early Black Friday period, would be expected in early December, followed by the Christmas figures in January. Worldpanel confirms its release dates on its own website, and they can move.
Several other data points arrive sooner. The Office for National Statistics publishes official retail sales for October on 20 November. The BRC-KPMG monitor showed total retail sales up 1.5% in October, with food sales growth of 3.2%, as covered in our report on UK retail sales in October as shoppers wait for Black Friday. The BRC’s November shop price figures are also due later this month.
For Asda, the next tests are its own trading update and the first public statement of strategy from Potts. For Lidl, it is whether the gap to Aldi keeps closing over Christmas, a period when the big four supermarkets often win back some share with premium ranges. Separately, M&S held a capital markets day on Tuesday at which, Sharecast reported, it pledged to double its dividend and reiterated its sales outlook; its store grocery growth of 14.6% in the Worldpanel figures will be central to that story.
The questions the data cannot yet answer
The published figures do not say how much of Lidl’s growth comes from new stores rather than existing ones, and Worldpanel’s reported numbers do not separate price from volume at retailer level. Nor do they show how much of Asda’s decline is online versus in-store. Those details may appear in retailers’ own results, but until then the panel data should be read as a direction of travel rather than a precise verdict on any single strategy.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current UK grocery inflation rate?
Worldpanel by Numerator put like-for-like grocery price inflation at 2.6% in the four weeks to 1 November 2026, up from 2.5% in September and 2.3% the month before. The BRC-NIQ Shop Price Monitor put food inflation at 2.9% in October. The two measures use different methods, so their figures differ.
Which supermarket has the biggest market share in the UK?
Tesco, with 27.8% of the take-home grocery market in the 12 weeks to 1 November 2026, according to Worldpanel. Sainsbury’s is second with 15.5%, followed by Asda on 11.3%, Aldi on 10.4%, Lidl on 8.6% and Morrisons on 8.3%.
Why is Asda losing market share?
Asda’s sales fell 0.5% in the 12 weeks to 1 November while every other major grocer except Iceland grew. Its share fell from 11.6% to 11.3%. A short-lived return to growth in the summer has faded, and the business is carrying about £3.1bn of net debt under its private equity owner TDR Capital. David Potts became chief executive on 3 November.
Which supermarket is growing fastest?
Among the grocers in Worldpanel’s share table, Ocado grew fastest at 12.3%, reaching a record 2.3% share. Lidl grew 6.6% and made the largest share gain of any grocer, up 0.4 points to 8.6%. M&S, which is reported separately, grew store grocery sales by 14.6%.
Did the Be Ready campaign cause panic buying?
Worldpanel says not. Sales of hand sanitiser, bottled water and tinned goods rose sharply in the ten days after the 22 October launch, but fewer than a third of households bought bottled water in October, and the typical tinned meat purchase stayed at about 500g. The growth came from more households adding a few items, not from bulk buying.
Is Aldi or Lidl bigger in the UK?
Aldi is still bigger, with a 10.4% share against Lidl’s 8.6% in the 12 weeks to 1 November. But Lidl is growing much faster, at 6.6% against Aldi’s 0.4%, and the gap between them has narrowed to 1.8 percentage points.
Why is M&S not in the supermarket market share table?
Worldpanel excludes M&S from its main share table because a large part of its business is clothing and home goods. It reports M&S grocery sales separately; they rose 14.6% through M&S stores in the 12 weeks to 1 November. M&S also part-owns Ocado Retail, which is in the table.
When are the next supermarket market share figures published?
Worldpanel releases figures every four weeks, so the next set, covering the 12 weeks to late November, would be expected in early December. The exact date is confirmed on Worldpanel’s website. Official ONS retail sales for October are due on 20 November.
How much more is a weekly shop costing?
At 2.6% inflation, a basket of the same items that cost £100 a year ago would cost about £102.60 now. Actual spending depends on what each household buys: switching to own-label ranges, discounters or loyalty prices can offset some or all of the rise.