International trade, cross-border commerce, tariffs, customs, and global market dynamics.
The US, EU and UK have all moved to scrap or shrink low-value import de minimis relief within eighteen months. At least one more G7 or G20 economy is likely to follow before the end of Q1 2027, and the direct-from-China duty-free parcel is entering terminal decline.
Billions of undervalued DDP parcels enter the EU almost unchecked, dodging duty and VAT while local retailers pay in full. How the loophole works, and why the EU keeps waving it through.
The US killed de minimis, the EU is following, and safety rules are tightening. The cheap-parcel arbitrage behind Temu and Shein is running out of road.
US Customs and Border Protection’s bulk tariff refund rollout stumbled on July 3 as 4.36 million entries failed validation. More than $71bn in IEEPA duty refunds has been certified, but finally liquidated importers are being left out.
Three signals observed in recent weeks (a CEO split, a Turkish banking license, and an 86% stake) point to Kaspi accelerating a super-app build at Hepsiburada. The likeliest window for the first regulated fintech proof points is H2 2026, before the Q3 earnings call.
Three EU regulatory deadlines converge in the second half of 2026: the EUR 3 customs duty, mandatory product identifiers, and active DSA enforcement. The pattern suggests Temu and Shein will pivot to EU local fulfillment and raise prices on cheap imports before year-end.
Coupang’s Taiwan flywheel has crossed the demand-proof threshold, and its market-entry pattern points to Japan as the next capex magnet. The likely outcome: a deepened Japan footprint signalled by Q4 2026, not a brand-new country.
The EU scraps its low-value customs relief on July 1, 2026, but three recent signals suggest the fee will not slow Temu and Shein’s European growth this year. Expect adaptation through local fulfillment rather than retreat, with their EU growth likely still positive through Q3.
Belgian shoppers spent a record €18.3bn online in 2025, up 5.4%, according to the Becom Market Monitor. Yet domestic webshops grew only 3.43%, barely above inflation, as Chinese platforms and foreign marketplaces absorbed most of the new spending.
The EU’s 1 July 2026 parcel duty is likely to accelerate, not reverse, Temu and Shein’s move to local EU fulfillment. Three signals point to majority local-warehouse shipping by year-end 2026.